9. Η αξιοποίηση της αιολικής, της ηλιακής, και της γεωθερμικής ενέργειας
CHAPTER 9
1. Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21), Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2010).
2. Historical coal and oil consumption data (1949–2005) from U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review, at www.eia.doe.gov/aer/contents.html, updated 26 June 2009; data for 2006–2009 and projection for 2010 from DOE, EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, atwww.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/contents.html, updated 8 September 2010, with adjustments for falling average heat content of U.S. coal from DOE, EIA, “Annual Energy Review: Thermal Conversion Factors,” atwww.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/append_a.html, updated 19 August 2010; Ted Nace, “Ready to Rumble: A Global Movement is Bringing Down King Coal–One Power Plant at a Time,” Earth Island Journal, vol. 25 (summer 2010), pp. 34–39.
3. Number of wind farms calculated from American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), Annual Wind Industry Report: Year Ending 2008 (Washington, DC: April 2009), pp. 21–25, from AWEA, AWEA Year End 2009 Market Report (Washington, DC: January 2010), pp. 5–15, and from AWEA, AWEA Mid-Year 2010 Market Report (Washington, DC: July 2010), pp. 8–10; total wind capacity additions calculated from Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind 2009 Report(Brussels: 2010), p. 63, and from AWEA, Mid-Year 2010 Market Report, op. cit. this note, pp. 8–10; number and generating capacity of new wind farms coming online in the second half of 2010 estimated by author; geothermal power plants from Alison Holm et al., Geothermal Energy International Market Update (Washington, DC: Geothermal Energy Association (GEA), May 2010), pp. 47–48; solar cell installations from European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA),Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics Until 2014 (Brussels: May 2010), p. 10; solar thermal plants from Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), “Utility-Scale Solar Projects in the United States: Operational, Under Construction, and Under Development,” table at seia.org/galleries/pdf/Major%20Solar%20Projects.pdf, updated 27 August 2010.
4. Lester R. Brown, “The Flawed Economics of Nuclear Power,” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 28 October 2008); Amory B. Lovins, Imran Sheikh, and Alex Markevich, “Forget Nuclear,” Solutions, vol. xxiv, no. 1 (spring 2008); for a discussion of costs, see International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: 2009), p. 69.
5. Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, and Juha Kiviluoma, “Global Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 106, no. 27 (7 July 2009), pp. 10,933–38.
6. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, pp. 3, 17; GWEC, “Global Wind Capacity to Reach Close to 200 GW This Year,” press release (Brussels: 23 September 2010).
7. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 10; DOE, EIA, Crude Oil Production, electronic database, at tonto.eia.doe.gov, updated 29 July 2010; AWEA, U.S. Wind Energy Projects, electronic database, at www.awea.org, updated 20 July 2010; Electric Reliability Council of Texas, System Planning Division, Monthly Status Report to Reliability and Operations Subcommittee for August 2010 (Austin, TX: 16 September 2010); Matthew Kaplan, IHS Emerging Energy Research, “The Post-Recession Wind Market Landscape,” presentation at Windpower 2010, Dallas, TX, 26 May 2010; coal-fired power plant equivalent calculated by assuming that an average plant has a 500-megawatt capacity and a 72 percent capacity factor, generating 3.15 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year; residential consumption from DOE, EIA, State Energy Data System 2008, electronic database, at www.eia.doe.gov/states/_seds.html, updated 30 June 2010; population from U.S. Census Bureau, State & County QuickFacts, electronic database, at quickfacts.census.gov, updated 16 August 2010; wind capacity factor from DOE, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Power Technologies Energy Data Book(Golden, CO: August 2006).
8. Tiffany Hsu, “Wind Farm ‘Mega-project’ Underway in Mojave Desert,” Los Angeles Times, 27 July 2010; Terra-Gen Power, LLC, “Terra-Gen Power Breaks Ground on World’s Largest Wind Project: U.S.-Based Renewable Energy Company’s Latest Project Set to Produce 1,550 MW of Clean, Renewable Wind Energy,” press release (Mojave, CA: 27 July 2010); Office of the Governor, “Governor Schwarzenegger Celebrates First Phase Completion of Tehachapi Renewable Transmission Project to Green the Grid,” press release (Sacramento, CA: 4 May 2010).
9. Wind royalties are author’s estimates based on Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), “Farming the Wind: Wind Power and Agriculture,” fact sheet (Cambridge, MA: 2003).
10. Corn per acre and ethanol per bushel approximated from Allen Baker et al., “Ethanol Reshapes the Corn Market,”Amber Waves, vol. 4, no. 2 (April 2006), pp. 32, 34; conservative ethanol price of $2 per gallon based on F.O. Licht, “Biofuels,” World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 8, no. 14 (29 March 2010), pp. 298–99; wind calculations based on a 2-megawatt wind turbine operating 36 percent of the time, generating 6.3 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year; capacity factor from DOE, NREL, op. cit. note 7; wholesale electricity price from DOE, Wholesale Market Data, electronic database at www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity, updated 22 April 2009.
11. Lu, McElroy, and Kiviluoma, op. cit. note 5; GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 10; Li Junfeng, Shi Pengfei, and Gao Hu, China Wind Power Outlook 2010 (Beijing and Brussels: Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, Greenpeace China, and GWEC, 2010), pp. 23–32; coal-fired power plant equivalent calculated by assuming that an average plant has a 500-megawatt capacity and a 72 percent capacity factor, generating 3.15 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year.
12. Junfeng, Pengfei, and Hu, op. cit. note 11, pp. 21, 27–28; Manuela Zoninsein, “Chinese Offshore Development Blows Past U.S.,” ClimateWire, 7 September 2010.
13. European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), “Offshore Wind Heads for Record Year,” press release (Brussels: 20 July 2010); “Offshore Poised to Power the Drive Towards 2020,” Windpower Monthly Special Report: Europe Offshore(August 2010), p. 6; La Tene Maps and EWEA, “Europe: Offshore Wind Farm Projects,” digital map (2009) available atwww.ewea.org/offshore; EWEA, Oceans of Opportunity: Harnessing Europe’s Largest Domestic Energy Resource(Brussels: September 2009), p. 2.
14. Government of Scotland, “Target for Renewable Energy Now 80 Per Cent,” press release (Edinburgh: 23 September 2010); Daniel Fineren, “Scotland to Get 100 Pct Green Energy by 2025,” Reuters, 27 September 2010.
15. Denmark from GWEC, “Interactive World Map,” at www.gwec.net/index.php?id=126, viewed 12 August 2010; German states from GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 42; German national estimate from GWEC, Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels: 2009), pp. 34–35; David Osterberg and Teresa Galluzzo, Think Wind Power, Think “Iowa” (Iowa City: Iowa Policy Project, March 2010).
16. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 30; Flemming Hansen, “Denmark to Increase Wind Power to 50% by 2025, Mostly Offshore,”Renewable Energy Access, 5 December 2006.
17. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 56; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009; Graham Keeley, “Spain’s Wind Turbines Supply Half of the National Power Grid,” Times (London), 10 November 2009.
18. Total installed electricity generating capacity in Turkey in 2007 from DOE, EIA, International Energy Statistics, electronic database, at tonto.eia.doe.gov, retrieved 12 August 2010; GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 58; Jan Dodd, “End Looms for Turkey Wind Glut Regulations Muddle,” Windpower Monthly, vol. 26, no. 6 (June 2010), p. 46.
19. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 24; Statistics Canada, “Population by Year, by Province and Territory,” atwww40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/demo02a-eng.htm, updated 30 November 2009; Trillium Power Wind Corporation, Round 1: Turbocharging Ontario’s Economy through the Development of Its Unique Offshore Wind Resources (Toronto: January 2010), p. 5; Government of Ontario, “Ontario’s Coal Phase Out Plan,” press release (Toronto: 3 September 2009).
20. New York Power Authority, “Five Proposals Begin NYPA Review Process for Great Lakes Offshore Wind Project: Environmental and Economic Development Benefits Expected,” press release (White Plains, NY: 4 June 2010); Great Lakes Wind Collaborative, “Quarterly Update: March 2010,” at www.glc.org/energy/wind/quarterly/winter2010.html; U.S. Offshore Wind Collaborative, U.S. Offshore Wind Energy: A Path Forward (Cambridge, MA: October 2009), pp. 15–16.
21. Total world electricity generation was 19,756 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2007, from IEA, op. cit. note 4, p. 623; 4 million megawatts of wind capacity with turbines operating 36 percent of the time would generate more than 12,000 TWh; GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 12.
22. Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2008 (Southfield, MI: 2008), pp. 239–42.
23. Cost per installed wind turbine calculated from Søren Krohn, ed., The Economics of Wind Energy (Brussels: EWEA, March 2009), p. 9; oil and gas capital expenditures from Swati Singh, GlobalData, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 1 October 2010.
24. Production data compiled by Earth Policy Institute, with 2001–06 from Prometheus Institute and Greentech Media, “25th Annual Data Collection Results: PV Production Explodes in 2008,” PV News, vol. 28, no. 4 (April 2009), pp. 15–18; 2007–09 from Shyam Mehta, GTM Research, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 21 June 2010; cumulative installations from EPIA, op. cit. note 3, p. 7.
25. Production data compiled by Earth Policy Institute, with 2001–06 from Prometheus Institute and Greentech Media, op. cit. note 24; 2007–09 for Japan from Shyam Mehta, “26th Annual Data Collection Results: Another Bumper Year for Manufacturing Masks Turmoil,” PV News, vol. 29, no. 5 (May 2010), pp. 11–14; 2007–09 for other countries from Mehta, op. cit. note 24; 2010 cell production estimate based on module forecast from Steve O’Rourke, Peter Kim, and Hari Polavarapu, Solar Photovoltaic Industry 2010 Global Outlook: Déjà Vu? (New York: Deutsche Bank, 8 February 2010), p. 9.
26. EPIA, op. cit. note 3, pp. 5–20.
27. REN21, op. cit. note 1, pp. 19–20; Renewables Insight, PV Power Plants 2010 Industry Guide (Berlin: Solarpraxis AG and Sunbeam GmbH, April 2010), pp. 8–13; SEIA, op. cit. note 3; William P. Hirshman, “Rocking in Morocco?” PHOTON International (May 2010), p. 10.
28. Svetlana Kovalyova, “Italy 2010 Solar Goal Tough But Reachable: Industry,” Reuters, 4 May 2010; EPIA, op. cit. note 3, p. 18; “Chapter 8.8: California Solar Initiative,” in California State Legislature, Statutes 2006, SB1, Chapter 132 (Sacramento, CA: 21 August 2006); California Public Utilities Commission, California Solar Initiative Program Handbook(San Francisco: January 2009), p. 91.
29. Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC), “Desalination Technology,” at www.swcc.gov.sa/default.asp?pid=66, viewed 13 August 2010; SWCC, “Private Sector Desalination Plants,” at www.swcc.gov.sa/default.asp?pid=89, viewed 13 August 2010; Prachi Patel, “Solar-Powered Desalination,” Technology Review, 8 April 2010; King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology, “‘Science & Technology’ Announces Launching the National Initiative to Desalinate Water Using the Solar Energy,” press release (Riyadh: 24 January 2010).
30. Figure for 2020 from Earth Policy Institute, assuming PV installations continue to more than double every two years, starting with existing capacity from EPIA, op. cit. note 3, p. 5; people who lack electricity from IEA, op. cit. note 4, p. 45; REN21, op. cit. note 1, pp. 20, 47; Robert H. Williams, “Facilitating Widespread Deployment of Wind and Photovoltaic Technologies,” in Energy Foundation, 2001 Annual Report (San Francisco: 2002), pp. 20–22.
31. Rainer Aringhoff et al., Concentrated Solar Thermal Power—Now! (Amsterdam, Brussels, and Almeria: Greenpeace International, European Solar Thermal Power Industry Association, and IEA SolarPACES, September 2005), p. 4; DOE, NREL, U.S. Parabolic Trough Power Plant Data, electronic database, at www.nrel.gov/csp/troughnet/power_plant _data.html, updated 25 July 2008; “Largest Solar Thermal Plant in 16 Years Now Online,” EERE Network News (DOE), 13 June 2007.
32. DESERTEC Foundation, “12 Companies Plan Establishment of a Desertec Industrial Initiative,” press release (Munich: 13 July 2009).
33. Ibid.; potential generating capacity estimated by author, based on Initiative’s stated goal of meeting a substantial portion of the producer countries’ electricity needs and 15 percent of Europe’s electricity needs by 2050, using IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), pp. 506–07, with capacity factor from DOE, NREL, op. cit. note 7.
34. “Algeria Aims to Export Power—Solar Power,” Associated Press, 11 August 2007; William Maclean, “Algeria Plans Solar Power Cable to Germany—Paper,” Reuters, 15 November 2007; Nathan S. Lewis and Daniel G. Nocera, “Powering the Planet: Chemical Challenges in Solar Energy Utilization,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 103, no. 43 (24 October 2006), pp. 15,729–35.
35. Emerging Energy Research, “Global Concentrated Solar Power Markets and Strategies: 2010–2025” (Cambridge, MA: April 2010); SEIA, op. cit. note 3; Asociación Española de la Industria Solar Termoeléctrica (Protermosolar), Boletín Protermosolar, no. 26 (June 2010).
36. Most CSP plants generating electricity today (named “parabolic trough” systems for the type of reflectors they use) require significant amounts of water for cooling in addition to the continually reused water needed to produce the superheated steam that drives the turbine. There are projects under construction and development, however, that use more advanced CSP technologies requiring less water or no water at all. While these technologies are currently more expensive and can be less efficient than traditional CSP, they would be more appropriate for arid regions. For an overview of CSP technologies, see IEA, Technology Roadmap: Concentrating Solar Power (Paris: 2010). For a more detailed discussion of CSP water requirements and water-saving technologies, see DOE, NREL, Concentrating Solar Power Commercial Application Study: Reducing Water Consumption of Concentrating Solar Power Electricity Generation, Report to Congress (Golden, CO: 2008).
37. Toby Price, “Molten Salt: The Magic Ingredient?” CSP Today, 6 November 2009; Sandia National Laboratories, National Solar Thermal Test Facility, “Advantages of Using Molten Salt,” atwww.sandia.gov/Renewable_Energy/solarthermal/NSTTF/salt.htm, updated 10 January 2006; David Biello, “How to Use Solar Energy at Night,” Scientific American, 18 February 2009.
38. Mark S. Mehos and David W. Kearney, “Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Concentrating Solar Power by 2030,” in Charles F. Kutscher, ed., Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.—Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030 (Boulder, CO: American Solar Energy Society, 2007), pp. 79–90; U.S. electricity consumption from DOE, EIA, Electric Power Annual 2008 (Washington, DC: January 2010), p. 1. Mark S. Mehos and David W. Kearney, “Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Concentrating Solar Power by 2030,” in Charles F. Kutscher, ed., Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.—Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030 (Boulder, CO: American Solar Energy Society, 2007), pp. 79–90; U.S. electricity consumption from DOE, EIA, Electric Power Annual 2008 (Washington, DC: January 2010), p. 1.
39. Christoph Richter, Sven Teske, and Rebecca Short, Concentrating Solar Power Global Outlook 2009 (Amsterdam, Tabernas, and Brussels: Greenpeace International, IEA SolarPACES, and European Solar Thermal Electricity Association, May 2009), pp. 53–59.
40. Rooftop solar water heater area and number of households calculated using data from Li Junfeng, China Renewable Energy Industries Association, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 1 October 2010; “Sunrise or Sunset?”China Daily, 25 August 2008; Ryan Hodum, “Kunming Heats Up as China’s ‘Solar City’,” China Watch (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute and Global Environmental Institute, 5 June 2007); Emma Graham-Harrison, “China Solar Power Firm Sees 25 Percent Growth,” Reuters, 4 October 2007; David Pierson, “China, Green? In the Case of Solar Water Heating, Yes,” Los Angeles Times, 6 September 2009.
41. Ole Pilgaard, Solar Thermal Action Plan for Europe (Brussels: European Solar Thermal Industry Federation, 2007); Janet L. Sawin, “Solar Industry Stays Hot,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2006–2007 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2006).
42. Les Nelson, “Solar-Water Heating Resurgence Ahead?” Solar Today, May/June 2007, pp. 26–29; Jackie Jones, “Such an Obvious Solution,” Renewable Energy World, 2 September 2008; Larry Sherwood, U.S. Solar Trends 2009 (Latham, NY: Interstate Renewable Energy Council, July 2010), p. 14; SEIA, U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review 2009: Supplemental Charts (Washington, DC: May 2010); California initiative from SEIA, U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review 2009 (Washington, DC: April 2010), p. 8; New York systems calculated from New York Solar Thermal Consortium, New York’s Solar Thermal Roadmap: Direction for New York State’s Renewable Energy Independent Future (Endicott, NY: New York Solar Energy Industries Association, 2010), pp. 1, 6.
43. Nelson, op. cit. note 42; Ambiente Italia, STO Database, ProSTO Project Web site, at www.solarordinances.eu, viewed 16 August 2010; State of Hawaii, Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, “SWH Variance Request Information,” at hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/energy/SWHVariance/requestinfo, updated 12 August 2010.
44. Karl Gawell et al., International Geothermal Development Directory and Resource Guide (Washington, DC: GEA, 2003); Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 4; one megawatt of geothermal electricity generating capacity can power roughly 1,000 homes, from Alyssa Kagel, Diana Bates, and Karl Gawell, A Guide to Geothermal Energy and the Environment(Washington, DC: GEA, April 2007), p. 2.
45. Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 7.
46. World Bank, “Geothermal Energy,” prepared under the PB Power and World Bank partnership program, atwww.worldbank.org; Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 4.
47. Jefferson Tester et al., The Future of Geothermal Energy: Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006), p. 1-9; John W. Lund and Derek H. Freeston, “World-wide Direct Uses of Geothermal Energy 2000,” Geothermics, vol. 30 (2001), pp. 34, 46, 51, 53; Alexander Richter, Iceland Geothermal Energy Market Report (Reykjavik: Íslandsbanki Geothermal Research, April 2010), p. 12.
48. Tester et al., op. cit. note 47, p. 1-4; Julian Smith, “Renewable Energy: Power Beneath Our Feet,” New Scientist, 8 October 2008.
49. UCS, “How Geothermal Energy Works,” at www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/offmen-how-geothermal-energy-works.html, viewed 22 April 2009; Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, pp. 47–48.
50. Peter Janssen, “The Too Slow Flow: Why Indonesia Could Get All Its Power from Volcanoes—But Doesn’t,”Newsweek, 20 September 2004; “Geothermal Power Projects to Cost $US19.8 Bln, Official Says,” ANTARA News(Jakarta), 9 July 2008; Gita Wirjawan, “The Oil Cycle: The Wheels are Turning Again,” Jakarta Post, 12 March 2009; DOE, EIA, “Indonesia Energy Profile,” at tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=ID, updated 14 July 2010.
51. Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 54; Yoko Nishikawa, “Japan Geothermal Projects Pick Up After 20 Years: Report,”Reuters, 4 January 2009; Lund and Freeston, op. cit. note 47, p. 46; Ormat Technologies, Inc., “Ormat and JFE Engineering Enter into a Cooperation Agreement for Implementing Geothermal Projects in Japan,” press release (Reno, NV: 28 June 2010).
52. U.N. Environment Programme, “Hot Prospect—Geothermal Electricity Set for Rift Valley Lift-Off in 2009,” press release (Nairobi: 9 December 2008); DOE, op. cit. note 18, retrieved 16 August 2010; Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, pp. 7, 13.
53. DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Energy Savers: Geothermal Heat Pumps,” updated 24 February 2009, and “Energy Savers: Benefits of Geothermal Heat Pump Systems,” updated 30 December 2008, both athttp://www.energysavers.gov; Jane Burgermeister, “Geothermal Electricity Booming in Germany,” Renewable Energy World, 2 June 2008; John W. Lund, Derek H. Freeston, and Tonya L. Boyd, “Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2010 Worldwide Review,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010.
54. Lund and Freeston, op. cit. note 47, pp. 34, 51, 53.
55. United States from Tester et al., op. cit. note 47, p. 1-9; Japan based on assumption that Enhanced Geothermal Systems could double 72,000-megawatt potential, from Hirofumi Muraoka et al., “Assessment of Hydrothermal Resource Potentials in Japan 2008,” Abstract of Annual Meeting of Geothermal Research Society of Japan (Kanazawa, Japan: 2008); and from Hirofumi Muraoka, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 13 July 2009; China from Chris Bromley et al., “Contribution of Geothermal Energy to Climate Change Mitigation: The IPCC Renewable Energy Report,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010; Indonesia from Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 53.
56. Stephen R. Gliessman, Agroecology: The Ecology of Sustainable Food Systems, 2nd ed. (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2006), p. 256; Pew Center on Global Climate Change, “Climate TechBook: Solar Power,” fact sheet (Arlington, VA: May 2009); Richter, Teske, and Short, op. cit. note 39, pp. 18–19.
57. Nic Lane, Issues Affecting Tidal, Wave, and In-Stream Generation Projects (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 26 November 2008).
58. IEA, op. cit. note 4, p. 623; IEA, IEA Member Countries and Countries Beyond the OECD, electronic databases, atwww.iea.org/Textbase/country/index.asp, viewed 16 August 2010.
59. Jason Palmer, “Renewable Energy: The Tide is Turning,” New Scientist, 11 October 2008; ABS Energy Research, The Ocean Energy Report (London: 2009), pp. 13–23; Young Ho Bae, Kyeong Ok Kim, and Byung Ho Choi, “Lake Sihwa Tidal Power Plant Project,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 36 (April 2010), pp. 454–63; Kim Hyun-cheol, “Incheon to House Largest Tidal Power Plant,” Korea Times, 20 January 2010; IEA, Implementing Agreement on Ocean Energy Systems, OES-IAAnnual Report 2009 (Lisbon: 2009), pp. 96, 103.
60. David Appleyard, “UK’s Pentland Marine Energy Site Winners Revealed,” Renewable Energy World, 16 March 2010; Ireland’s national goal from Electricity Supply Board, “ESBI and Vattenfall Agreement on Ocean Wave Energy,” press release (Dublin: 15 June 2010); wave energy capacity factor from European Commission Strategic Energy Technology Plan Information System, “Ocean Wave Power,” at setis.ec.europa.eu/technologies/Ocean-wave-power, viewed 17 August 2010; wave potential from World Energy Council (WEC), 2007 Survey of Energy Resources (London: 2007), p. 544; DOE, op. cit. note 18, retrieved 16 August 2010.
61. REN21, op. cit. note 1, pp. 21, 54; “China Becomes Hydro Superpower, but Aims for Greater Capacity,” Xinhua, 25 August 2010; Lila Buckley, “Hydropower in China: Participation and Energy Diversity Are Key,” China Watch (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute and Global Environmental Institute, 24 April 2007); “Rural Areas Get Increased Hydro Power Capacity,” Xinhua, 7 May 2007; Russell W. Ray and Andrew Lee, “A World of Opportunity,” Hydro Review, vol. 18, no. 2 (May 2010).
62. For a detailed explanation of the Plan B energy efficiency and renewable energy goals for 2020, see Lester R. Brown,Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2009) at www.earth-policy.org/books/pb4, as well as the supporting datasets for World on the Edge at www.earth-policy.org/books/wote/wote_data. Note that the Plan B goal for wind generation has been increased since publication of Plan B 4.0.
63. Reductions in fossil fuel use in the transportation sector based on a model developed by Earth Policy Institute using data from sources that include Stacy C. Davis and Susan W. Diegel, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 26 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, DOE, 2007); IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006); National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2006 (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2006), on-line atwww.stats.gov.cn/english.
64. “Texas to Spend Billions on Wind Power Transmission Lines,” Environment News Service, 18 July 2008; Eileen O’Grady, “Texas Finalizes Plan to Expand Wind Lines,” Reuters, 29 January 2009; TransCanada, “Zephyr and Chinook Power Transmission Lines,” at www.transcanada.com/zephyr.html, updated 21 June 2010; ITC Holdings Corp., “The Green Power Express,” at www.itctransco.com/projects/thegreenpowerexpress.html.
65. Rebecca Smith, “Drive to Link Wind, Solar Power to Distant Users,” Wall Street Journal, 13 October 2009; “CH2M HILL Tapped for Tres Amigas Transmission Project,” Wind Energy Weekly, vol. 28, no. 1400 (27 August 2010); Tres Amigas, LLC, “Benefits,” at www.tresamigasllc.com/about-benefits.php, viewed 16 October 2010.
66. Juliet Eilperin, “Google Backs ‘Superhighway’ for Wind Power,” Washington Post, 13 October 2010.
67. Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson, “Supplying Baseload Power and Reducing Transmission Requirements by Interconnecting Wind Farms,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 46 (November 2007), pp. 1,701–17; “CH2M HILL Tapped,” op. cit. note 65.
68. Janice Massy, “Grand Vision on Paper: Blueprint for a European Supergrid,” Windpower Monthly, vol. 24, no. 12 (December 2008), p. 37; Alok Jha, “Solar Power from Saharan Sun Could Provide Europe’s Electricity, Says EU,”Guardian (London), 23 July 2008; David Strahan, “From AC to DC: Going Green with Supergrids,” New Scientist, 14–20 March 2009; Paul Rodgers, “Wind-fuelled ‘Supergrid’ Offers Clean Power to Europe,” Independent (London), 25 November 2007; Friends of the Supergrid, “Ten Industry Leaders Form New Organisation to Advance Offshore Supergrid,” press release (Brussels: 8 March 2010); Eddie O’Connor, “The Supergrid,” O’Connor Online, blog, ateddie.mainstreamrp.com, viewed 30 September 2010; The ABB Group, “The NorNed HVDC Link,” at www.abb.com, updated 25 April 2010.
69. Fossil fuel subsidies for production and use from Global Subsidies Initiative, Achieving the G-20 Call to Phase Out Subsidies to Fossil Fuels (Geneva: October 2009), p. 2; renewable energy subsidies from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Subsidies for Renewables, Biofuels Dwarfed by Supports for Fossil Fuels,” press release (London: 29 July 2010).
70. REN21, op. cit. note 1, pp. 37–39; Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE), “Summary Maps: Renewable Portfolio Standards,” at www.dsireusa.org/summarymaps/index.cfm, updated July 2010; DSIRE, “Incentives/Policies for Renewables & Efficiency,” at www.dsireusa.org/incentives/index.cfm, viewed 12 August 2010.
71. WEC, Energy Efficiency Policies around the World: Review and Evaluation (London: 2008), pp. 41–43.
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute
1. Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21), Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2010).
2. Historical coal and oil consumption data (1949–2005) from U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review, at www.eia.doe.gov/aer/contents.html, updated 26 June 2009; data for 2006–2009 and projection for 2010 from DOE, EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, atwww.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/contents.html, updated 8 September 2010, with adjustments for falling average heat content of U.S. coal from DOE, EIA, “Annual Energy Review: Thermal Conversion Factors,” atwww.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/append_a.html, updated 19 August 2010; Ted Nace, “Ready to Rumble: A Global Movement is Bringing Down King Coal–One Power Plant at a Time,” Earth Island Journal, vol. 25 (summer 2010), pp. 34–39.
3. Number of wind farms calculated from American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), Annual Wind Industry Report: Year Ending 2008 (Washington, DC: April 2009), pp. 21–25, from AWEA, AWEA Year End 2009 Market Report (Washington, DC: January 2010), pp. 5–15, and from AWEA, AWEA Mid-Year 2010 Market Report (Washington, DC: July 2010), pp. 8–10; total wind capacity additions calculated from Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind 2009 Report(Brussels: 2010), p. 63, and from AWEA, Mid-Year 2010 Market Report, op. cit. this note, pp. 8–10; number and generating capacity of new wind farms coming online in the second half of 2010 estimated by author; geothermal power plants from Alison Holm et al., Geothermal Energy International Market Update (Washington, DC: Geothermal Energy Association (GEA), May 2010), pp. 47–48; solar cell installations from European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA),Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics Until 2014 (Brussels: May 2010), p. 10; solar thermal plants from Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), “Utility-Scale Solar Projects in the United States: Operational, Under Construction, and Under Development,” table at seia.org/galleries/pdf/Major%20Solar%20Projects.pdf, updated 27 August 2010.
4. Lester R. Brown, “The Flawed Economics of Nuclear Power,” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 28 October 2008); Amory B. Lovins, Imran Sheikh, and Alex Markevich, “Forget Nuclear,” Solutions, vol. xxiv, no. 1 (spring 2008); for a discussion of costs, see International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: 2009), p. 69.
5. Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, and Juha Kiviluoma, “Global Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 106, no. 27 (7 July 2009), pp. 10,933–38.
6. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, pp. 3, 17; GWEC, “Global Wind Capacity to Reach Close to 200 GW This Year,” press release (Brussels: 23 September 2010).
7. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 10; DOE, EIA, Crude Oil Production, electronic database, at tonto.eia.doe.gov, updated 29 July 2010; AWEA, U.S. Wind Energy Projects, electronic database, at www.awea.org, updated 20 July 2010; Electric Reliability Council of Texas, System Planning Division, Monthly Status Report to Reliability and Operations Subcommittee for August 2010 (Austin, TX: 16 September 2010); Matthew Kaplan, IHS Emerging Energy Research, “The Post-Recession Wind Market Landscape,” presentation at Windpower 2010, Dallas, TX, 26 May 2010; coal-fired power plant equivalent calculated by assuming that an average plant has a 500-megawatt capacity and a 72 percent capacity factor, generating 3.15 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year; residential consumption from DOE, EIA, State Energy Data System 2008, electronic database, at www.eia.doe.gov/states/_seds.html, updated 30 June 2010; population from U.S. Census Bureau, State & County QuickFacts, electronic database, at quickfacts.census.gov, updated 16 August 2010; wind capacity factor from DOE, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Power Technologies Energy Data Book(Golden, CO: August 2006).
8. Tiffany Hsu, “Wind Farm ‘Mega-project’ Underway in Mojave Desert,” Los Angeles Times, 27 July 2010; Terra-Gen Power, LLC, “Terra-Gen Power Breaks Ground on World’s Largest Wind Project: U.S.-Based Renewable Energy Company’s Latest Project Set to Produce 1,550 MW of Clean, Renewable Wind Energy,” press release (Mojave, CA: 27 July 2010); Office of the Governor, “Governor Schwarzenegger Celebrates First Phase Completion of Tehachapi Renewable Transmission Project to Green the Grid,” press release (Sacramento, CA: 4 May 2010).
9. Wind royalties are author’s estimates based on Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), “Farming the Wind: Wind Power and Agriculture,” fact sheet (Cambridge, MA: 2003).
10. Corn per acre and ethanol per bushel approximated from Allen Baker et al., “Ethanol Reshapes the Corn Market,”Amber Waves, vol. 4, no. 2 (April 2006), pp. 32, 34; conservative ethanol price of $2 per gallon based on F.O. Licht, “Biofuels,” World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 8, no. 14 (29 March 2010), pp. 298–99; wind calculations based on a 2-megawatt wind turbine operating 36 percent of the time, generating 6.3 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year; capacity factor from DOE, NREL, op. cit. note 7; wholesale electricity price from DOE, Wholesale Market Data, electronic database at www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity, updated 22 April 2009.
11. Lu, McElroy, and Kiviluoma, op. cit. note 5; GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 10; Li Junfeng, Shi Pengfei, and Gao Hu, China Wind Power Outlook 2010 (Beijing and Brussels: Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, Greenpeace China, and GWEC, 2010), pp. 23–32; coal-fired power plant equivalent calculated by assuming that an average plant has a 500-megawatt capacity and a 72 percent capacity factor, generating 3.15 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year.
12. Junfeng, Pengfei, and Hu, op. cit. note 11, pp. 21, 27–28; Manuela Zoninsein, “Chinese Offshore Development Blows Past U.S.,” ClimateWire, 7 September 2010.
13. European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), “Offshore Wind Heads for Record Year,” press release (Brussels: 20 July 2010); “Offshore Poised to Power the Drive Towards 2020,” Windpower Monthly Special Report: Europe Offshore(August 2010), p. 6; La Tene Maps and EWEA, “Europe: Offshore Wind Farm Projects,” digital map (2009) available atwww.ewea.org/offshore; EWEA, Oceans of Opportunity: Harnessing Europe’s Largest Domestic Energy Resource(Brussels: September 2009), p. 2.
14. Government of Scotland, “Target for Renewable Energy Now 80 Per Cent,” press release (Edinburgh: 23 September 2010); Daniel Fineren, “Scotland to Get 100 Pct Green Energy by 2025,” Reuters, 27 September 2010.
15. Denmark from GWEC, “Interactive World Map,” at www.gwec.net/index.php?id=126, viewed 12 August 2010; German states from GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 42; German national estimate from GWEC, Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels: 2009), pp. 34–35; David Osterberg and Teresa Galluzzo, Think Wind Power, Think “Iowa” (Iowa City: Iowa Policy Project, March 2010).
16. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 30; Flemming Hansen, “Denmark to Increase Wind Power to 50% by 2025, Mostly Offshore,”Renewable Energy Access, 5 December 2006.
17. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 56; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009; Graham Keeley, “Spain’s Wind Turbines Supply Half of the National Power Grid,” Times (London), 10 November 2009.
18. Total installed electricity generating capacity in Turkey in 2007 from DOE, EIA, International Energy Statistics, electronic database, at tonto.eia.doe.gov, retrieved 12 August 2010; GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 58; Jan Dodd, “End Looms for Turkey Wind Glut Regulations Muddle,” Windpower Monthly, vol. 26, no. 6 (June 2010), p. 46.
19. GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 24; Statistics Canada, “Population by Year, by Province and Territory,” atwww40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/demo02a-eng.htm, updated 30 November 2009; Trillium Power Wind Corporation, Round 1: Turbocharging Ontario’s Economy through the Development of Its Unique Offshore Wind Resources (Toronto: January 2010), p. 5; Government of Ontario, “Ontario’s Coal Phase Out Plan,” press release (Toronto: 3 September 2009).
20. New York Power Authority, “Five Proposals Begin NYPA Review Process for Great Lakes Offshore Wind Project: Environmental and Economic Development Benefits Expected,” press release (White Plains, NY: 4 June 2010); Great Lakes Wind Collaborative, “Quarterly Update: March 2010,” at www.glc.org/energy/wind/quarterly/winter2010.html; U.S. Offshore Wind Collaborative, U.S. Offshore Wind Energy: A Path Forward (Cambridge, MA: October 2009), pp. 15–16.
21. Total world electricity generation was 19,756 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2007, from IEA, op. cit. note 4, p. 623; 4 million megawatts of wind capacity with turbines operating 36 percent of the time would generate more than 12,000 TWh; GWEC, op. cit. note 3, p. 12.
22. Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2008 (Southfield, MI: 2008), pp. 239–42.
23. Cost per installed wind turbine calculated from Søren Krohn, ed., The Economics of Wind Energy (Brussels: EWEA, March 2009), p. 9; oil and gas capital expenditures from Swati Singh, GlobalData, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 1 October 2010.
24. Production data compiled by Earth Policy Institute, with 2001–06 from Prometheus Institute and Greentech Media, “25th Annual Data Collection Results: PV Production Explodes in 2008,” PV News, vol. 28, no. 4 (April 2009), pp. 15–18; 2007–09 from Shyam Mehta, GTM Research, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 21 June 2010; cumulative installations from EPIA, op. cit. note 3, p. 7.
25. Production data compiled by Earth Policy Institute, with 2001–06 from Prometheus Institute and Greentech Media, op. cit. note 24; 2007–09 for Japan from Shyam Mehta, “26th Annual Data Collection Results: Another Bumper Year for Manufacturing Masks Turmoil,” PV News, vol. 29, no. 5 (May 2010), pp. 11–14; 2007–09 for other countries from Mehta, op. cit. note 24; 2010 cell production estimate based on module forecast from Steve O’Rourke, Peter Kim, and Hari Polavarapu, Solar Photovoltaic Industry 2010 Global Outlook: Déjà Vu? (New York: Deutsche Bank, 8 February 2010), p. 9.
26. EPIA, op. cit. note 3, pp. 5–20.
27. REN21, op. cit. note 1, pp. 19–20; Renewables Insight, PV Power Plants 2010 Industry Guide (Berlin: Solarpraxis AG and Sunbeam GmbH, April 2010), pp. 8–13; SEIA, op. cit. note 3; William P. Hirshman, “Rocking in Morocco?” PHOTON International (May 2010), p. 10.
28. Svetlana Kovalyova, “Italy 2010 Solar Goal Tough But Reachable: Industry,” Reuters, 4 May 2010; EPIA, op. cit. note 3, p. 18; “Chapter 8.8: California Solar Initiative,” in California State Legislature, Statutes 2006, SB1, Chapter 132 (Sacramento, CA: 21 August 2006); California Public Utilities Commission, California Solar Initiative Program Handbook(San Francisco: January 2009), p. 91.
29. Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC), “Desalination Technology,” at www.swcc.gov.sa/default.asp?pid=66, viewed 13 August 2010; SWCC, “Private Sector Desalination Plants,” at www.swcc.gov.sa/default.asp?pid=89, viewed 13 August 2010; Prachi Patel, “Solar-Powered Desalination,” Technology Review, 8 April 2010; King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology, “‘Science & Technology’ Announces Launching the National Initiative to Desalinate Water Using the Solar Energy,” press release (Riyadh: 24 January 2010).
30. Figure for 2020 from Earth Policy Institute, assuming PV installations continue to more than double every two years, starting with existing capacity from EPIA, op. cit. note 3, p. 5; people who lack electricity from IEA, op. cit. note 4, p. 45; REN21, op. cit. note 1, pp. 20, 47; Robert H. Williams, “Facilitating Widespread Deployment of Wind and Photovoltaic Technologies,” in Energy Foundation, 2001 Annual Report (San Francisco: 2002), pp. 20–22.
31. Rainer Aringhoff et al., Concentrated Solar Thermal Power—Now! (Amsterdam, Brussels, and Almeria: Greenpeace International, European Solar Thermal Power Industry Association, and IEA SolarPACES, September 2005), p. 4; DOE, NREL, U.S. Parabolic Trough Power Plant Data, electronic database, at www.nrel.gov/csp/troughnet/power_plant _data.html, updated 25 July 2008; “Largest Solar Thermal Plant in 16 Years Now Online,” EERE Network News (DOE), 13 June 2007.
32. DESERTEC Foundation, “12 Companies Plan Establishment of a Desertec Industrial Initiative,” press release (Munich: 13 July 2009).
33. Ibid.; potential generating capacity estimated by author, based on Initiative’s stated goal of meeting a substantial portion of the producer countries’ electricity needs and 15 percent of Europe’s electricity needs by 2050, using IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), pp. 506–07, with capacity factor from DOE, NREL, op. cit. note 7.
34. “Algeria Aims to Export Power—Solar Power,” Associated Press, 11 August 2007; William Maclean, “Algeria Plans Solar Power Cable to Germany—Paper,” Reuters, 15 November 2007; Nathan S. Lewis and Daniel G. Nocera, “Powering the Planet: Chemical Challenges in Solar Energy Utilization,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 103, no. 43 (24 October 2006), pp. 15,729–35.
35. Emerging Energy Research, “Global Concentrated Solar Power Markets and Strategies: 2010–2025” (Cambridge, MA: April 2010); SEIA, op. cit. note 3; Asociación Española de la Industria Solar Termoeléctrica (Protermosolar), Boletín Protermosolar, no. 26 (June 2010).
36. Most CSP plants generating electricity today (named “parabolic trough” systems for the type of reflectors they use) require significant amounts of water for cooling in addition to the continually reused water needed to produce the superheated steam that drives the turbine. There are projects under construction and development, however, that use more advanced CSP technologies requiring less water or no water at all. While these technologies are currently more expensive and can be less efficient than traditional CSP, they would be more appropriate for arid regions. For an overview of CSP technologies, see IEA, Technology Roadmap: Concentrating Solar Power (Paris: 2010). For a more detailed discussion of CSP water requirements and water-saving technologies, see DOE, NREL, Concentrating Solar Power Commercial Application Study: Reducing Water Consumption of Concentrating Solar Power Electricity Generation, Report to Congress (Golden, CO: 2008).
37. Toby Price, “Molten Salt: The Magic Ingredient?” CSP Today, 6 November 2009; Sandia National Laboratories, National Solar Thermal Test Facility, “Advantages of Using Molten Salt,” atwww.sandia.gov/Renewable_Energy/solarthermal/NSTTF/salt.htm, updated 10 January 2006; David Biello, “How to Use Solar Energy at Night,” Scientific American, 18 February 2009.
38. Mark S. Mehos and David W. Kearney, “Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Concentrating Solar Power by 2030,” in Charles F. Kutscher, ed., Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.—Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030 (Boulder, CO: American Solar Energy Society, 2007), pp. 79–90; U.S. electricity consumption from DOE, EIA, Electric Power Annual 2008 (Washington, DC: January 2010), p. 1. Mark S. Mehos and David W. Kearney, “Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Concentrating Solar Power by 2030,” in Charles F. Kutscher, ed., Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.—Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030 (Boulder, CO: American Solar Energy Society, 2007), pp. 79–90; U.S. electricity consumption from DOE, EIA, Electric Power Annual 2008 (Washington, DC: January 2010), p. 1.
39. Christoph Richter, Sven Teske, and Rebecca Short, Concentrating Solar Power Global Outlook 2009 (Amsterdam, Tabernas, and Brussels: Greenpeace International, IEA SolarPACES, and European Solar Thermal Electricity Association, May 2009), pp. 53–59.
40. Rooftop solar water heater area and number of households calculated using data from Li Junfeng, China Renewable Energy Industries Association, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 1 October 2010; “Sunrise or Sunset?”China Daily, 25 August 2008; Ryan Hodum, “Kunming Heats Up as China’s ‘Solar City’,” China Watch (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute and Global Environmental Institute, 5 June 2007); Emma Graham-Harrison, “China Solar Power Firm Sees 25 Percent Growth,” Reuters, 4 October 2007; David Pierson, “China, Green? In the Case of Solar Water Heating, Yes,” Los Angeles Times, 6 September 2009.
41. Ole Pilgaard, Solar Thermal Action Plan for Europe (Brussels: European Solar Thermal Industry Federation, 2007); Janet L. Sawin, “Solar Industry Stays Hot,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2006–2007 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2006).
42. Les Nelson, “Solar-Water Heating Resurgence Ahead?” Solar Today, May/June 2007, pp. 26–29; Jackie Jones, “Such an Obvious Solution,” Renewable Energy World, 2 September 2008; Larry Sherwood, U.S. Solar Trends 2009 (Latham, NY: Interstate Renewable Energy Council, July 2010), p. 14; SEIA, U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review 2009: Supplemental Charts (Washington, DC: May 2010); California initiative from SEIA, U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review 2009 (Washington, DC: April 2010), p. 8; New York systems calculated from New York Solar Thermal Consortium, New York’s Solar Thermal Roadmap: Direction for New York State’s Renewable Energy Independent Future (Endicott, NY: New York Solar Energy Industries Association, 2010), pp. 1, 6.
43. Nelson, op. cit. note 42; Ambiente Italia, STO Database, ProSTO Project Web site, at www.solarordinances.eu, viewed 16 August 2010; State of Hawaii, Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, “SWH Variance Request Information,” at hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/energy/SWHVariance/requestinfo, updated 12 August 2010.
44. Karl Gawell et al., International Geothermal Development Directory and Resource Guide (Washington, DC: GEA, 2003); Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 4; one megawatt of geothermal electricity generating capacity can power roughly 1,000 homes, from Alyssa Kagel, Diana Bates, and Karl Gawell, A Guide to Geothermal Energy and the Environment(Washington, DC: GEA, April 2007), p. 2.
45. Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 7.
46. World Bank, “Geothermal Energy,” prepared under the PB Power and World Bank partnership program, atwww.worldbank.org; Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 4.
47. Jefferson Tester et al., The Future of Geothermal Energy: Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006), p. 1-9; John W. Lund and Derek H. Freeston, “World-wide Direct Uses of Geothermal Energy 2000,” Geothermics, vol. 30 (2001), pp. 34, 46, 51, 53; Alexander Richter, Iceland Geothermal Energy Market Report (Reykjavik: Íslandsbanki Geothermal Research, April 2010), p. 12.
48. Tester et al., op. cit. note 47, p. 1-4; Julian Smith, “Renewable Energy: Power Beneath Our Feet,” New Scientist, 8 October 2008.
49. UCS, “How Geothermal Energy Works,” at www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/offmen-how-geothermal-energy-works.html, viewed 22 April 2009; Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, pp. 47–48.
50. Peter Janssen, “The Too Slow Flow: Why Indonesia Could Get All Its Power from Volcanoes—But Doesn’t,”Newsweek, 20 September 2004; “Geothermal Power Projects to Cost $US19.8 Bln, Official Says,” ANTARA News(Jakarta), 9 July 2008; Gita Wirjawan, “The Oil Cycle: The Wheels are Turning Again,” Jakarta Post, 12 March 2009; DOE, EIA, “Indonesia Energy Profile,” at tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=ID, updated 14 July 2010.
51. Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 54; Yoko Nishikawa, “Japan Geothermal Projects Pick Up After 20 Years: Report,”Reuters, 4 January 2009; Lund and Freeston, op. cit. note 47, p. 46; Ormat Technologies, Inc., “Ormat and JFE Engineering Enter into a Cooperation Agreement for Implementing Geothermal Projects in Japan,” press release (Reno, NV: 28 June 2010).
52. U.N. Environment Programme, “Hot Prospect—Geothermal Electricity Set for Rift Valley Lift-Off in 2009,” press release (Nairobi: 9 December 2008); DOE, op. cit. note 18, retrieved 16 August 2010; Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, pp. 7, 13.
53. DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Energy Savers: Geothermal Heat Pumps,” updated 24 February 2009, and “Energy Savers: Benefits of Geothermal Heat Pump Systems,” updated 30 December 2008, both athttp://www.energysavers.gov; Jane Burgermeister, “Geothermal Electricity Booming in Germany,” Renewable Energy World, 2 June 2008; John W. Lund, Derek H. Freeston, and Tonya L. Boyd, “Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2010 Worldwide Review,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010.
54. Lund and Freeston, op. cit. note 47, pp. 34, 51, 53.
55. United States from Tester et al., op. cit. note 47, p. 1-9; Japan based on assumption that Enhanced Geothermal Systems could double 72,000-megawatt potential, from Hirofumi Muraoka et al., “Assessment of Hydrothermal Resource Potentials in Japan 2008,” Abstract of Annual Meeting of Geothermal Research Society of Japan (Kanazawa, Japan: 2008); and from Hirofumi Muraoka, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 13 July 2009; China from Chris Bromley et al., “Contribution of Geothermal Energy to Climate Change Mitigation: The IPCC Renewable Energy Report,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010; Indonesia from Holm et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 53.
56. Stephen R. Gliessman, Agroecology: The Ecology of Sustainable Food Systems, 2nd ed. (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2006), p. 256; Pew Center on Global Climate Change, “Climate TechBook: Solar Power,” fact sheet (Arlington, VA: May 2009); Richter, Teske, and Short, op. cit. note 39, pp. 18–19.
57. Nic Lane, Issues Affecting Tidal, Wave, and In-Stream Generation Projects (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 26 November 2008).
58. IEA, op. cit. note 4, p. 623; IEA, IEA Member Countries and Countries Beyond the OECD, electronic databases, atwww.iea.org/Textbase/country/index.asp, viewed 16 August 2010.
59. Jason Palmer, “Renewable Energy: The Tide is Turning,” New Scientist, 11 October 2008; ABS Energy Research, The Ocean Energy Report (London: 2009), pp. 13–23; Young Ho Bae, Kyeong Ok Kim, and Byung Ho Choi, “Lake Sihwa Tidal Power Plant Project,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 36 (April 2010), pp. 454–63; Kim Hyun-cheol, “Incheon to House Largest Tidal Power Plant,” Korea Times, 20 January 2010; IEA, Implementing Agreement on Ocean Energy Systems, OES-IAAnnual Report 2009 (Lisbon: 2009), pp. 96, 103.
60. David Appleyard, “UK’s Pentland Marine Energy Site Winners Revealed,” Renewable Energy World, 16 March 2010; Ireland’s national goal from Electricity Supply Board, “ESBI and Vattenfall Agreement on Ocean Wave Energy,” press release (Dublin: 15 June 2010); wave energy capacity factor from European Commission Strategic Energy Technology Plan Information System, “Ocean Wave Power,” at setis.ec.europa.eu/technologies/Ocean-wave-power, viewed 17 August 2010; wave potential from World Energy Council (WEC), 2007 Survey of Energy Resources (London: 2007), p. 544; DOE, op. cit. note 18, retrieved 16 August 2010.
61. REN21, op. cit. note 1, pp. 21, 54; “China Becomes Hydro Superpower, but Aims for Greater Capacity,” Xinhua, 25 August 2010; Lila Buckley, “Hydropower in China: Participation and Energy Diversity Are Key,” China Watch (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute and Global Environmental Institute, 24 April 2007); “Rural Areas Get Increased Hydro Power Capacity,” Xinhua, 7 May 2007; Russell W. Ray and Andrew Lee, “A World of Opportunity,” Hydro Review, vol. 18, no. 2 (May 2010).
62. For a detailed explanation of the Plan B energy efficiency and renewable energy goals for 2020, see Lester R. Brown,Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2009) at www.earth-policy.org/books/pb4, as well as the supporting datasets for World on the Edge at www.earth-policy.org/books/wote/wote_data. Note that the Plan B goal for wind generation has been increased since publication of Plan B 4.0.
63. Reductions in fossil fuel use in the transportation sector based on a model developed by Earth Policy Institute using data from sources that include Stacy C. Davis and Susan W. Diegel, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 26 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, DOE, 2007); IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006); National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2006 (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2006), on-line atwww.stats.gov.cn/english.
64. “Texas to Spend Billions on Wind Power Transmission Lines,” Environment News Service, 18 July 2008; Eileen O’Grady, “Texas Finalizes Plan to Expand Wind Lines,” Reuters, 29 January 2009; TransCanada, “Zephyr and Chinook Power Transmission Lines,” at www.transcanada.com/zephyr.html, updated 21 June 2010; ITC Holdings Corp., “The Green Power Express,” at www.itctransco.com/projects/thegreenpowerexpress.html.
65. Rebecca Smith, “Drive to Link Wind, Solar Power to Distant Users,” Wall Street Journal, 13 October 2009; “CH2M HILL Tapped for Tres Amigas Transmission Project,” Wind Energy Weekly, vol. 28, no. 1400 (27 August 2010); Tres Amigas, LLC, “Benefits,” at www.tresamigasllc.com/about-benefits.php, viewed 16 October 2010.
66. Juliet Eilperin, “Google Backs ‘Superhighway’ for Wind Power,” Washington Post, 13 October 2010.
67. Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson, “Supplying Baseload Power and Reducing Transmission Requirements by Interconnecting Wind Farms,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 46 (November 2007), pp. 1,701–17; “CH2M HILL Tapped,” op. cit. note 65.
68. Janice Massy, “Grand Vision on Paper: Blueprint for a European Supergrid,” Windpower Monthly, vol. 24, no. 12 (December 2008), p. 37; Alok Jha, “Solar Power from Saharan Sun Could Provide Europe’s Electricity, Says EU,”Guardian (London), 23 July 2008; David Strahan, “From AC to DC: Going Green with Supergrids,” New Scientist, 14–20 March 2009; Paul Rodgers, “Wind-fuelled ‘Supergrid’ Offers Clean Power to Europe,” Independent (London), 25 November 2007; Friends of the Supergrid, “Ten Industry Leaders Form New Organisation to Advance Offshore Supergrid,” press release (Brussels: 8 March 2010); Eddie O’Connor, “The Supergrid,” O’Connor Online, blog, ateddie.mainstreamrp.com, viewed 30 September 2010; The ABB Group, “The NorNed HVDC Link,” at www.abb.com, updated 25 April 2010.
69. Fossil fuel subsidies for production and use from Global Subsidies Initiative, Achieving the G-20 Call to Phase Out Subsidies to Fossil Fuels (Geneva: October 2009), p. 2; renewable energy subsidies from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Subsidies for Renewables, Biofuels Dwarfed by Supports for Fossil Fuels,” press release (London: 29 July 2010).
70. REN21, op. cit. note 1, pp. 37–39; Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE), “Summary Maps: Renewable Portfolio Standards,” at www.dsireusa.org/summarymaps/index.cfm, updated July 2010; DSIRE, “Incentives/Policies for Renewables & Efficiency,” at www.dsireusa.org/incentives/index.cfm, viewed 12 August 2010.
71. WEC, Energy Efficiency Policies around the World: Review and Evaluation (London: 2008), pp. 41–43.
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