ΙΙΙ. Η ΑΠΑΝΤΗΣΗ: ΤΟ ΣΧΕΔΙΟ Β
8. Η οικοδόμηση μιας ενεργειακά αποδοτικής παγκόσμιας οικονομίας
PLAN B
1. Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), pp. 13–21; Guy Gugliotta, “The Maya: Glory and Ruin,” National Geographic, August 2007; Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Penguin Group, 2005); Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
2. For a detailed explanation of the Plan B climate stabilization goal, see Lester R. Brown, Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2009), available on-line at www.earth-policy.org/books/pb4, as well as the book’s supporting datasets at www.earth-policy.org/books/pb4/pb4_data.
3. Current carbon dioxide concentration from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, “Mauna Loa CO2 Annual Mean Data,” at ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_annmean_mlo.txt, updated 7 October 2010; carbon dioxide projections modeled with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 7 (2007), pp. 2,287–312, with historical emissions from fossil fuels from G. Marland, T. A. Boden, and R. J. Andres, “Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions,” and from land use change from R. A. Houghton, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes,” both in Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008 and 2010), at cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm; scientist recommendations in Johan Rockström et al., “A Safe Operating Space for Humanity,” Nature, vol. 461 (24 September 2009), pp. 472–75; Marlowe Hood, “Top UN Climate Scientist Backs Ambitious CO2 Cuts,” Agence France-Presse, 25 August 2009; James Hansen et al., “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” Open Atmospheric Science Journal, vol. 2 (15 October 2008), pp. 217–31.
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute
CHAPTER 8
1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), “Energy Star Change a Light, Change the World,” at www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products, viewed 26 August 2010; CREE LED Lighting, “LED 101,” at www.creeledrevolution.com/learn, viewed 18 August 2010.
2. Gary Kendall, Plugged In: The End of the Oil Age (Brussels: WWF, March 2008), pp. 79–86.
3. EPA and DOE, op. cit. note 1.
4. Paul Waide, Phase Out of Incandescent Lamps, (Paris: International Energy Agency (IEA), April 2010); CREE LED Lighting, op. cit. note 1.
5. Navigant Consulting Inc., Energy Savings Estimates of Light Emitting Diodes in Niche Lighting Applications(Washington, DC: DOE, rev. October 2008); Victoria Bryan, “LED Firm Seeks Growth From Greener Traffic Lights,”Reuters, 4 March 2010; Margaret Newman, New York City Department of Transportation, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 10 September 2010.
6. “Mayor Villaraigosa, President Clinton Light the Way to a Greener LA,” press release (Los Angeles: Office of the Mayor, 16 February 2009); Carolyn Hinkley and Eric Escudero, eds., “City of Angels Becoming City of LED Lights,” EERE Program News (DOE), 23 June 2010.
7. Center for American Progress, “Let There Be ‘LED’ Light,” It’s Easy Being Green, atwww.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/09/ebg_091510.html, 15 September 2010; Martin Mittelstaedt, “The Future Looks Bright for LED Lights,” Globe and Mail (Toronto), 9 March 2010; Emma Ritch, “China, Taiwan Team Up to Boost LEDs,” CleanTech Group, LLC, 28 April 2009.
8. IEA, Light’s Labour’s Lost: Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting (Paris: 2006), p. 29; CREE LED Lighting, op. cit. note 1.
9. Energy savings from lighting efficiency calculated using IEA, op. cit. note 8, pp. 25, 29, and IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: 2009), p. 623; coal-fired power plant equivalent calculated by assuming that an average plant has a 500-megawatt capacity and operates 72 percent of the time, generating 3.15 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year.
10. Steven Nadel, The Federal Energy Policy Act of 2005 and Its Implications for Energy Efficiency Program Efforts(Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, 2005); DOE, Report to Congress: Energy Conservation Standards Activities (Washington, DC: August 2010), pp. 7, 10; President Barack Obama, “Appliance Efficiency Standards,” Memorandum (Washington, DC: 5 February 2009); John M. Broder, “Obama Orders New Rules to Raise Energy Efficiency,” New York Times, 6 February 2009; DOE, “DOE Proposes Higher Efficiency Standards for Refrigerators,” EERE Network News (DOE), 28 September 2010.
11. California Energy Commission, “Frequently Asked Questions—FAQs Energy Efficiency Standards for Televisions,” atwww.energy.ca.gov/appliances/tv_faqs.html, viewed 23 September 2010; Todd Woody, “California Approves TV Efficiency Rules,” Green, blog, at NYTimes.com, 18 November 2009.
12. “Ownership of Major Durable Consumer Goods Per 100 Urban Households at Year-End,” and “Electricity Balance Sheet,” tables in National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbooks 1996, 2009 (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1996, 2009), on-line at www.stats.gov.cn/english; DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA), “2001, 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey,” at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs, viewed 24 September 2010.
13. Greenpeace,“Your Energy Savings,” at www.greenpeace.org/international/campaigns/climate-change/take_action/your-energy, 2 June 2007.
14. Marianne Haug et al., Cool Appliances: Policy Strategies for Energy Efficient Homes (Paris: IEA, 2003); Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Top Runner Program: Developing the World’s Best Energy-Efficient Appliances (Tokyo: 2008).
15. Appliance share of electricity consumption from IEA, Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from IEA Indicator Analysis (Paris: 2008), p. 46, and from IEA, “New IEA Policy Pathways Series Shows the Way on How to Substantially Improve Implementation of Energy Efficiency Recommendations,” press release (Paris: 11 October 2010); heating, ventilation, and air conditioning consumption from McKinsey & Company, Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: Version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve (New York: 2009), p. 105; energy consumption of building sector from IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (Paris: 2010), p. 211; total electricity and energy consumption from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: 2009), p. 622; comparison of transportation and building sectors’ emissions in McKinsey & Company, op. cit. this note, pp. 59–129; Edward Mazria, “It’s the Architecture, Stupid! Who Really Holds the Key to the Global Thermostat? The Answer Might Surprise You,” The World and I, May/June 2003; Clinton Foundation, “Energy Efficiency Building Retrofit Program,” fact sheet (New York: May 2007).
16. DOE, “Secretaries Donovan and Chu Announce Partnership to Help Working Families Weatherize Their Homes,” press release (Washington, DC: 27 February 2009); DOE, “Transforming the Way Americans Use Energy” atenergy.gov/recovery/energy_efficiency.htm, viewed 19 August 2010.
17. “Clinton Unveils $5 Billion Green Makeover for Cities,” Environment News Service, 16 May 2007; William J. Clinton Foundation, Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI), “Building Retrofit,” at www.clintonfoundation.org/what-we-do/clinton-climate-initiative/our-approach/cities/building-retrofit, viewed 11 March 2010; Olivia Ross, CCI, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 3 March 2010.
18. Clinton Foundation, “CCI Helps Retrofit Empire State Building,” press release (New York: 6 April 2009); Molly Miller, “Leading Example for Energy Efficiency,” press release (Boulder, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, April 2009); “One of the World’s Most Iconic Buildings Goes Green,” The Daily Green, 27 July 2010.
19. McKinsey & Company, op. cit. note 15, p. 106; German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU), Heat from Renewable Energies: What Will the New Heat Act Achieve? (Berlin: July 2008); BMU,Consolidated Version of the Reasoning Behind the Act on the Promotion of Renewable Energies in the Heat Sector(Berlin: August 2008).
20. Mazria, op. cit. note 15; information on the 2030 Challenge at www.architecture2030.org.
21. U.S. Green Buildings Council, “An Introduction to LEED,” at http://www.usgbc.org/DisplayPage.aspx?CMSPageID=1988, viewed 13 September 2010; Andrew C. Burr, “CoStar Study Finds LEED, Energy Star Bldgs. Outperform Peers,” press release (Washington, DC: CoStar Group Real Estate Information, 26 March 2008); Greg Kats et al., The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings (Sacramento, CA: report prepared for Sustainable Building Task Force, October 2003).
22. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, The Philip Merrill Environmental Center, Chesapeake Bay Foundation:Highlighting High Performance (Golden, CO: April 2002).
23. Hines, “Sustainable, Responsible Design for the Future…Today,” fact sheet (Houston, TX: 2009); Liz Westcott, Hines, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 13 September 2010.
24. Nick Carey and Ilaina Jonas, “Green Buildings Need More Incentives in US,” Reuters, 15 February 2007; Bank of America, “Bank of America Tower at One Bryant Park Is First Commercial Skyscraper in U.S. to Achieve LEED Platinum,” press release (Charlotte, NC: 20 May 2010); Pike Research, “Green Building Certifications to Cover 53 Billion Square Feet of Space by 2020,” press release (Boulder, CO: 18 May 2010); Eric Bloom, Pike Research, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 22 September 2010.
25. Jay Walljasper, “Unjamming the Future,” Ode, October 2005, pp. 36–41; Breakthrough Technologies Institute,Transport Innovator (various issues); Victoria Transport Policy Institute (VTPI), “Bus Rapid Transit,” Online TDM Encyclopedia, updated 25 January 2010; Institute for Transportation & Development Policy, “China Bus Rapid Transit,” atwww.chinaBRT.org, updated 6 April 2010.
26. Serge Schmemann, “I Love Paris on a Bus, a Bike, a Train and in Anything but a Car,” New York Times, 26 July 2007; Katrin Bennhold, “A New French Revolution’s Creed: Let Them Ride Bikes,” New York Times, 16 July 2007.
27. Leo Hickman, “London and Paris: A Tale of Two Bike-Hire Schemes,” Guardian (London),20 July 2010; City of Paris, “Vélib: Subscriptions and Prices,” at www.en.velib.paris.fr, viewed 19 August 2010; Steven Erlanger and Maïa de la Baume, “French Ideal of Bicycle-Sharing Meets Reality,” New York Times, 30 October 2009; J. David Goodman, “Bike Sharing Expands in Washington,” Green, blog, at NYTimes.com, 20 September 2010; Rebecca Kanthor, “Cycle City: Shanghai Ramps Up Its Bike-Share Schemes,” CNN Go, 22 April 2010; Martha Mendoza, “Mexico City Offers Bike-Share Program as Part of Clean-Air Campaign,” CNN News, 22 April 2010; MetroBike, LLC, “First South American Programs Underway,” The Bike-Sharing Blog, at bike-sharing.blogspot.com, 22 December 2008.
28. IEA, “Oil by Country/Region,” at www.iea.org/stats/prodresult.asp?PRODUCT=Oil, viewed 23 September 2010; DOE, EIA, “Taiwan Energy Profile,” at www.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=TW, updated 14 July 2010;Ward’s Automotive Group, “Vehicles in Operation by Country,” table from Lisa Williamson, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 24 September 2010; Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2008 (Southfield, MI: 2008).
29. Figures are constant 2007 dollars, from Texas Transportation Institute, 2009 Urban Mobility Report (College Station, TX: July 2009), p. 5.
30. John Ritter, “Narrowed Roads Gain Acceptance in Colo., Elsewhere,” USA Today, 29 July 2007; John Ritter, “‘Complete Streets’ Program Gives More Room for Pedestrians, Cyclists,” USA Today, 29 July 2007; U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Highway Administration, “United States Department of Transportation Policy Statement on Bicycle and Pedestrian Accommodation Regulations and Recommendations” press release (Washington, DC: 15 March 2010).
31. National Complete Streets Coalition, “Complete the Streets: Who We Are,” atwww.completestreets.org/whoweare.html, viewed 19 August 2010; Nancy Thompson, AARP, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 24 September 2010; John Ritter, “Narrowed Roads,” op. cit. note 30; Stefanie Seskin, National Complete Streets Coalition, e-mails to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 19 August and 25 October 2010.
32. Lester R. Brown, “U.S. Car Fleet Shrank by Four Million in 2009—After a Century of Growth, U.S. Fleet Entering Era of Decline,” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 6 January 2010); Ward’s Automotive Group, “Vehicles in Operation by Country,” op. cit. note 28; Ward’s Automotive Group, “U.S. Car and Truck Sales, 1931–2009,” atwardsauto.com/keydata, updated 2010.
33. Shawn Hubler, “Licenses Take a Back Seat,” Los Angeles Times, 2 December 2004; Micheline Maynard, “Is Happiness Still that New Car Smell?” New York Times, 21 October 2009; U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpd/wup/unup, updated 2010; Brown, op. cit. note 32; Yuri Kageyama, “Cars No Longer Coveted by Young,” Japan Times, 4 January 2009; Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., Motor Vehicle Statistics of Japan 2008 (Tokyo: 2008), p. 8.
34. The White House, “President Obama Announces National Fuel Efficiency Policy,” press release (Washington, DC: 19 May 2009); Andrew C. Revkin, “Fuel Efficiency Standards: Not So Efficient?” Green, blog, at NYTimes.com, 19 May 2009.
35. “VOLT: It’s More Car than Electric,” at www.chevrolet.com/pages/open/default/future/volt.do, viewed 20 August 2010; Nissan USA, “Sustainable Mobility Comes to United States with Dedication of Nissan LEAF Production Site,” Nissan News: Technology, 26 May 2010; “Prius Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle (PHV) FAQ Sheet,” PriusChat.com, 13 April 2010; cost of electricity equivalent to a gallon of gas from Roger Duncan, “Plug-In Hybrids: Pollution-Free Transport on the Horizon,”Solar Today, May/June 2007, p. 46.
36. Michael Kintner-Meyer et al., Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids—Part 1: Technical Analysis (Richland, WA: DOE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), 2006); Michael Kintner-Meyer, PNNL, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 24 September 2010.
37. “Parking,” in Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis II (Victoria, BC: VTPI, updated 13 September 2010), p. 5.4-16; Katie Zezima, “With Free Bikes, Challenging Car Culture on Campus,” New York Times, 20 October 2008.
38. Molly O’Meara, Reinventing Cities for People and the Planet, Worldwatch Paper 147 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, June 1999), pp. 47–48; John Pucher and Ralph Buehler, “Walking and Cycling for Healthy Cities,” Built Environment, vol. 36, no. 4 (December 2010).
39. Hiroki Matsumoto, “The Shinkansen: Japan’s High Speed Railway,” testimony before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines and Materials (Washington, DC: Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 19 April 2007); Central Japan Railway Company, Annual Report 2010 (Nagoya: 10 September 2010), p. 67.
40. Jonathan Head, “Japan Marks Bullet Train’s 40th,” BBC News, 1 October 2004; Hiroko Tabuchi, “Japan Starts to Shop Its Bullet Train Technology,” New York Times, 11 May 2010; Matsumoto, op. cit. note 39.
41. Iñaki Barrón, “High Speed Rail: The Big Picture,” testimony before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines and Materials (Washington, DC: Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 19 April 2007); International Union of Railways (UIC), “Miles of High Speed Lines in the World,” at www.uic.org/spip.php?article573, updated 21 May 2010; Paul Nussbaum, “Europe’s High-Speed Rail Revolution May Spread to U.S.,” Philadelphia Inquirer, 8 August 2010; High Speed Department, UIC, High Speed Around the World: Maps (Paris: 21 May 2010).
42. Barron, op. cit. note 41.
43. Elisabeth Rosenthal, “High-Speed Rail Gains Traction in Spain,” New York Times, 15 March 2010; “Train Travel Takes off in High Speed and Comfort,” Economic Times, 19 March 2010; “A High-Speed Revolution,” The Economist, 5 July 2007.
44. Keith B. Richburg, “China Is Pulling Ahead in Worldwide Race for High-Speed Rail Transportation,” Washington Post, 12 May 2010; “Zhengzhou–Xi’an High-Speed Train Starts Operation,” China Daily, 6 February 2010.
45. Richburg, op. cit. note 44; DOT, “Federal Railroad Administration Budget,” Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Highlights, atwww.dot.gov/budget/2010/bib2010.htm, May 2009.
46. Stuart F. Brown, “Revolutionary Rail: High-Speed Trains are Coming to the U.S.,” Scientific American, May 2010.
47. Dwight Eisenhower, “State of the Union Address,” 5 January 1956, at www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=10593.
48. Jack Kinstlinger, Magnetic Levitation High Speed Rail Service Along the Eastern Seaboard (Hunt Valley, MD: KCI Technologies, Inc., 2007).
49. Car weight from Stacy C. Davis and Susan W. Diegel, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 29 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, DOE, 2010), p. 4-16; bus weight from John Shonsey et al., RTD Bus Transit Facility Design Guidelines and Criteria (Denver, CO: Regional Transportation District, February 2006); car-to-bus ratio from American Public Transportation Association, The Benefits of Public Transportation—An Overview (Washington, DC: September 2002).
50. Richard Register, e-mail to author, 16 October 2007.
51. William McDonough and Michael Braungart, Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (New York: North Point Press, 2002); Rebecca Smith, “Beyond Recycling: Manufacturers Embrace ‘C2C’ Design,” Wall Street Journal, 3 March 2005.
52. U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries (Reston, VA: U.S. Department of the Interior, 2010); Brown, op. cit note 32; Ward’s Automotive Group, “Vehicles in Operation by Country,” op. cit. note 28; “Steel Recycling Rates at a Glance,” fact sheet (Pittsburgh, PA:Steel Recycling Institute, 2008).
53. Rona Fried, “Recycling Industry Offers Recession-Proof Investing,” Solar Today, July/August 2008, pp. 22–23.
54. EPA, “Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Recycling, and Disposal in the United States: Facts and Figures for 2008,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: 2009), p. 8; Courtney Gross, “City Garbage Plan Falls Short of Goals,” Gotham Gazette, 4 May 2010; City of Chicago, “2009 Chicago Waste Characterization Study and Waste Diversion Study Results,” atwww.cityofchicago.org/city/en/depts/doe/provdrs/waste_mang/news/2010/apr/2009_chicago_wastecharacterizationstudyandwastediversionstudyres.html, viewed 2 September 2010; City of Los Angeles, Department of Public Works, “Top Honors for City of Los Angeles’ Solid Waste Programs,” press release (Los Angeles: 30 June 2010); Bill Wilson, “Diversion from Landfill Exceeds Goal,” San Francisco Sentinel, 27 August 2010.
55. “New Hampshire Town Boosts Recycling with Pay-As-You-Throw,” Environment News Service, 21 March 2007; Skumatz Economic Research Associates, Inc., surveys for EPA, “2006 PAYT Programs: Pay-As-You-Throw at a Glance,” at www.epa.gov/epawaste/conserve/tools/payt/states/06comm.htm, viewed 17 August 2010.
56. Brenda Platt and Neil Seldman, Wasting and Recycling in the United States 2000 (Athens, GA: GrassRoots Recycling Network, 2000); Brenda Platt and Doug Rowe, Reduce, Reuse, Refill! (Washington, DC: Institute for Local Self-Reliance, 2002); David Saphire, Case Reopened: Reassessing Refillable Bottles (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1994).
57. Catherine Ferrier, Bottled Water: Understanding a Social Phenomenon (Surrey, U.K.: WWF, 2001).
58. Oil consumption calculated using number of plastic water bottles from Jennifer Gitlitz et al., Water, Water Everywhere: The Growth of Non-carbonated Beverages in the United States (Washington, DC: Container Recycling Institute, February 2007); I. Boustead, Eco-profiles of the European Plastics Industry: PET Bottles (Brussels: PlasticsEurope, Association of Plastics Manufacturers, March 2005), pp. 4–9; DOE, EIA, “Oil Market Basics: Demand,” atwww.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/full_contents.htm, viewed 24 September 2010; Pacific Institute, “Bottled Water and Energy,” fact sheet (Oakland, CA: 2007); DOE, EIA, “Crude Oil and Total Petroleum Imports Top 15 Countries,” atwww.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html, updated 29 September 2010.
59. Natalie Mims, Mathias Bell, and Stephen Doig, Assessing the Electric Productivity Gap and the U.S. Efficiency Opportunity (Snowmass, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, January 2009), pp. 6, 16–17.
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute
1. Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), pp. 13–21; Guy Gugliotta, “The Maya: Glory and Ruin,” National Geographic, August 2007; Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Penguin Group, 2005); Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
2. For a detailed explanation of the Plan B climate stabilization goal, see Lester R. Brown, Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2009), available on-line at www.earth-policy.org/books/pb4, as well as the book’s supporting datasets at www.earth-policy.org/books/pb4/pb4_data.
3. Current carbon dioxide concentration from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, “Mauna Loa CO2 Annual Mean Data,” at ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_annmean_mlo.txt, updated 7 October 2010; carbon dioxide projections modeled with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 7 (2007), pp. 2,287–312, with historical emissions from fossil fuels from G. Marland, T. A. Boden, and R. J. Andres, “Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions,” and from land use change from R. A. Houghton, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes,” both in Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008 and 2010), at cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm; scientist recommendations in Johan Rockström et al., “A Safe Operating Space for Humanity,” Nature, vol. 461 (24 September 2009), pp. 472–75; Marlowe Hood, “Top UN Climate Scientist Backs Ambitious CO2 Cuts,” Agence France-Presse, 25 August 2009; James Hansen et al., “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” Open Atmospheric Science Journal, vol. 2 (15 October 2008), pp. 217–31.
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute
CHAPTER 8
1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), “Energy Star Change a Light, Change the World,” at www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=products.pr_find_es_products, viewed 26 August 2010; CREE LED Lighting, “LED 101,” at www.creeledrevolution.com/learn, viewed 18 August 2010.
2. Gary Kendall, Plugged In: The End of the Oil Age (Brussels: WWF, March 2008), pp. 79–86.
3. EPA and DOE, op. cit. note 1.
4. Paul Waide, Phase Out of Incandescent Lamps, (Paris: International Energy Agency (IEA), April 2010); CREE LED Lighting, op. cit. note 1.
5. Navigant Consulting Inc., Energy Savings Estimates of Light Emitting Diodes in Niche Lighting Applications(Washington, DC: DOE, rev. October 2008); Victoria Bryan, “LED Firm Seeks Growth From Greener Traffic Lights,”Reuters, 4 March 2010; Margaret Newman, New York City Department of Transportation, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 10 September 2010.
6. “Mayor Villaraigosa, President Clinton Light the Way to a Greener LA,” press release (Los Angeles: Office of the Mayor, 16 February 2009); Carolyn Hinkley and Eric Escudero, eds., “City of Angels Becoming City of LED Lights,” EERE Program News (DOE), 23 June 2010.
7. Center for American Progress, “Let There Be ‘LED’ Light,” It’s Easy Being Green, atwww.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/09/ebg_091510.html, 15 September 2010; Martin Mittelstaedt, “The Future Looks Bright for LED Lights,” Globe and Mail (Toronto), 9 March 2010; Emma Ritch, “China, Taiwan Team Up to Boost LEDs,” CleanTech Group, LLC, 28 April 2009.
8. IEA, Light’s Labour’s Lost: Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting (Paris: 2006), p. 29; CREE LED Lighting, op. cit. note 1.
9. Energy savings from lighting efficiency calculated using IEA, op. cit. note 8, pp. 25, 29, and IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: 2009), p. 623; coal-fired power plant equivalent calculated by assuming that an average plant has a 500-megawatt capacity and operates 72 percent of the time, generating 3.15 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year.
10. Steven Nadel, The Federal Energy Policy Act of 2005 and Its Implications for Energy Efficiency Program Efforts(Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, 2005); DOE, Report to Congress: Energy Conservation Standards Activities (Washington, DC: August 2010), pp. 7, 10; President Barack Obama, “Appliance Efficiency Standards,” Memorandum (Washington, DC: 5 February 2009); John M. Broder, “Obama Orders New Rules to Raise Energy Efficiency,” New York Times, 6 February 2009; DOE, “DOE Proposes Higher Efficiency Standards for Refrigerators,” EERE Network News (DOE), 28 September 2010.
11. California Energy Commission, “Frequently Asked Questions—FAQs Energy Efficiency Standards for Televisions,” atwww.energy.ca.gov/appliances/tv_faqs.html, viewed 23 September 2010; Todd Woody, “California Approves TV Efficiency Rules,” Green, blog, at NYTimes.com, 18 November 2009.
12. “Ownership of Major Durable Consumer Goods Per 100 Urban Households at Year-End,” and “Electricity Balance Sheet,” tables in National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbooks 1996, 2009 (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1996, 2009), on-line at www.stats.gov.cn/english; DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA), “2001, 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey,” at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs, viewed 24 September 2010.
13. Greenpeace,“Your Energy Savings,” at www.greenpeace.org/international/campaigns/climate-change/take_action/your-energy, 2 June 2007.
14. Marianne Haug et al., Cool Appliances: Policy Strategies for Energy Efficient Homes (Paris: IEA, 2003); Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Top Runner Program: Developing the World’s Best Energy-Efficient Appliances (Tokyo: 2008).
15. Appliance share of electricity consumption from IEA, Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from IEA Indicator Analysis (Paris: 2008), p. 46, and from IEA, “New IEA Policy Pathways Series Shows the Way on How to Substantially Improve Implementation of Energy Efficiency Recommendations,” press release (Paris: 11 October 2010); heating, ventilation, and air conditioning consumption from McKinsey & Company, Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: Version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve (New York: 2009), p. 105; energy consumption of building sector from IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (Paris: 2010), p. 211; total electricity and energy consumption from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: 2009), p. 622; comparison of transportation and building sectors’ emissions in McKinsey & Company, op. cit. this note, pp. 59–129; Edward Mazria, “It’s the Architecture, Stupid! Who Really Holds the Key to the Global Thermostat? The Answer Might Surprise You,” The World and I, May/June 2003; Clinton Foundation, “Energy Efficiency Building Retrofit Program,” fact sheet (New York: May 2007).
16. DOE, “Secretaries Donovan and Chu Announce Partnership to Help Working Families Weatherize Their Homes,” press release (Washington, DC: 27 February 2009); DOE, “Transforming the Way Americans Use Energy” atenergy.gov/recovery/energy_efficiency.htm, viewed 19 August 2010.
17. “Clinton Unveils $5 Billion Green Makeover for Cities,” Environment News Service, 16 May 2007; William J. Clinton Foundation, Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI), “Building Retrofit,” at www.clintonfoundation.org/what-we-do/clinton-climate-initiative/our-approach/cities/building-retrofit, viewed 11 March 2010; Olivia Ross, CCI, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 3 March 2010.
18. Clinton Foundation, “CCI Helps Retrofit Empire State Building,” press release (New York: 6 April 2009); Molly Miller, “Leading Example for Energy Efficiency,” press release (Boulder, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, April 2009); “One of the World’s Most Iconic Buildings Goes Green,” The Daily Green, 27 July 2010.
19. McKinsey & Company, op. cit. note 15, p. 106; German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU), Heat from Renewable Energies: What Will the New Heat Act Achieve? (Berlin: July 2008); BMU,Consolidated Version of the Reasoning Behind the Act on the Promotion of Renewable Energies in the Heat Sector(Berlin: August 2008).
20. Mazria, op. cit. note 15; information on the 2030 Challenge at www.architecture2030.org.
21. U.S. Green Buildings Council, “An Introduction to LEED,” at http://www.usgbc.org/DisplayPage.aspx?CMSPageID=1988, viewed 13 September 2010; Andrew C. Burr, “CoStar Study Finds LEED, Energy Star Bldgs. Outperform Peers,” press release (Washington, DC: CoStar Group Real Estate Information, 26 March 2008); Greg Kats et al., The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings (Sacramento, CA: report prepared for Sustainable Building Task Force, October 2003).
22. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, The Philip Merrill Environmental Center, Chesapeake Bay Foundation:Highlighting High Performance (Golden, CO: April 2002).
23. Hines, “Sustainable, Responsible Design for the Future…Today,” fact sheet (Houston, TX: 2009); Liz Westcott, Hines, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 13 September 2010.
24. Nick Carey and Ilaina Jonas, “Green Buildings Need More Incentives in US,” Reuters, 15 February 2007; Bank of America, “Bank of America Tower at One Bryant Park Is First Commercial Skyscraper in U.S. to Achieve LEED Platinum,” press release (Charlotte, NC: 20 May 2010); Pike Research, “Green Building Certifications to Cover 53 Billion Square Feet of Space by 2020,” press release (Boulder, CO: 18 May 2010); Eric Bloom, Pike Research, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 22 September 2010.
25. Jay Walljasper, “Unjamming the Future,” Ode, October 2005, pp. 36–41; Breakthrough Technologies Institute,Transport Innovator (various issues); Victoria Transport Policy Institute (VTPI), “Bus Rapid Transit,” Online TDM Encyclopedia, updated 25 January 2010; Institute for Transportation & Development Policy, “China Bus Rapid Transit,” atwww.chinaBRT.org, updated 6 April 2010.
26. Serge Schmemann, “I Love Paris on a Bus, a Bike, a Train and in Anything but a Car,” New York Times, 26 July 2007; Katrin Bennhold, “A New French Revolution’s Creed: Let Them Ride Bikes,” New York Times, 16 July 2007.
27. Leo Hickman, “London and Paris: A Tale of Two Bike-Hire Schemes,” Guardian (London),20 July 2010; City of Paris, “Vélib: Subscriptions and Prices,” at www.en.velib.paris.fr, viewed 19 August 2010; Steven Erlanger and Maïa de la Baume, “French Ideal of Bicycle-Sharing Meets Reality,” New York Times, 30 October 2009; J. David Goodman, “Bike Sharing Expands in Washington,” Green, blog, at NYTimes.com, 20 September 2010; Rebecca Kanthor, “Cycle City: Shanghai Ramps Up Its Bike-Share Schemes,” CNN Go, 22 April 2010; Martha Mendoza, “Mexico City Offers Bike-Share Program as Part of Clean-Air Campaign,” CNN News, 22 April 2010; MetroBike, LLC, “First South American Programs Underway,” The Bike-Sharing Blog, at bike-sharing.blogspot.com, 22 December 2008.
28. IEA, “Oil by Country/Region,” at www.iea.org/stats/prodresult.asp?PRODUCT=Oil, viewed 23 September 2010; DOE, EIA, “Taiwan Energy Profile,” at www.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=TW, updated 14 July 2010;Ward’s Automotive Group, “Vehicles in Operation by Country,” table from Lisa Williamson, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 24 September 2010; Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2008 (Southfield, MI: 2008).
29. Figures are constant 2007 dollars, from Texas Transportation Institute, 2009 Urban Mobility Report (College Station, TX: July 2009), p. 5.
30. John Ritter, “Narrowed Roads Gain Acceptance in Colo., Elsewhere,” USA Today, 29 July 2007; John Ritter, “‘Complete Streets’ Program Gives More Room for Pedestrians, Cyclists,” USA Today, 29 July 2007; U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Highway Administration, “United States Department of Transportation Policy Statement on Bicycle and Pedestrian Accommodation Regulations and Recommendations” press release (Washington, DC: 15 March 2010).
31. National Complete Streets Coalition, “Complete the Streets: Who We Are,” atwww.completestreets.org/whoweare.html, viewed 19 August 2010; Nancy Thompson, AARP, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 24 September 2010; John Ritter, “Narrowed Roads,” op. cit. note 30; Stefanie Seskin, National Complete Streets Coalition, e-mails to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 19 August and 25 October 2010.
32. Lester R. Brown, “U.S. Car Fleet Shrank by Four Million in 2009—After a Century of Growth, U.S. Fleet Entering Era of Decline,” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 6 January 2010); Ward’s Automotive Group, “Vehicles in Operation by Country,” op. cit. note 28; Ward’s Automotive Group, “U.S. Car and Truck Sales, 1931–2009,” atwardsauto.com/keydata, updated 2010.
33. Shawn Hubler, “Licenses Take a Back Seat,” Los Angeles Times, 2 December 2004; Micheline Maynard, “Is Happiness Still that New Car Smell?” New York Times, 21 October 2009; U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpd/wup/unup, updated 2010; Brown, op. cit. note 32; Yuri Kageyama, “Cars No Longer Coveted by Young,” Japan Times, 4 January 2009; Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., Motor Vehicle Statistics of Japan 2008 (Tokyo: 2008), p. 8.
34. The White House, “President Obama Announces National Fuel Efficiency Policy,” press release (Washington, DC: 19 May 2009); Andrew C. Revkin, “Fuel Efficiency Standards: Not So Efficient?” Green, blog, at NYTimes.com, 19 May 2009.
35. “VOLT: It’s More Car than Electric,” at www.chevrolet.com/pages/open/default/future/volt.do, viewed 20 August 2010; Nissan USA, “Sustainable Mobility Comes to United States with Dedication of Nissan LEAF Production Site,” Nissan News: Technology, 26 May 2010; “Prius Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle (PHV) FAQ Sheet,” PriusChat.com, 13 April 2010; cost of electricity equivalent to a gallon of gas from Roger Duncan, “Plug-In Hybrids: Pollution-Free Transport on the Horizon,”Solar Today, May/June 2007, p. 46.
36. Michael Kintner-Meyer et al., Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids—Part 1: Technical Analysis (Richland, WA: DOE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), 2006); Michael Kintner-Meyer, PNNL, e-mail to Alexandra Giese, Earth Policy Institute, 24 September 2010.
37. “Parking,” in Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis II (Victoria, BC: VTPI, updated 13 September 2010), p. 5.4-16; Katie Zezima, “With Free Bikes, Challenging Car Culture on Campus,” New York Times, 20 October 2008.
38. Molly O’Meara, Reinventing Cities for People and the Planet, Worldwatch Paper 147 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, June 1999), pp. 47–48; John Pucher and Ralph Buehler, “Walking and Cycling for Healthy Cities,” Built Environment, vol. 36, no. 4 (December 2010).
39. Hiroki Matsumoto, “The Shinkansen: Japan’s High Speed Railway,” testimony before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines and Materials (Washington, DC: Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 19 April 2007); Central Japan Railway Company, Annual Report 2010 (Nagoya: 10 September 2010), p. 67.
40. Jonathan Head, “Japan Marks Bullet Train’s 40th,” BBC News, 1 October 2004; Hiroko Tabuchi, “Japan Starts to Shop Its Bullet Train Technology,” New York Times, 11 May 2010; Matsumoto, op. cit. note 39.
41. Iñaki Barrón, “High Speed Rail: The Big Picture,” testimony before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines and Materials (Washington, DC: Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 19 April 2007); International Union of Railways (UIC), “Miles of High Speed Lines in the World,” at www.uic.org/spip.php?article573, updated 21 May 2010; Paul Nussbaum, “Europe’s High-Speed Rail Revolution May Spread to U.S.,” Philadelphia Inquirer, 8 August 2010; High Speed Department, UIC, High Speed Around the World: Maps (Paris: 21 May 2010).
42. Barron, op. cit. note 41.
43. Elisabeth Rosenthal, “High-Speed Rail Gains Traction in Spain,” New York Times, 15 March 2010; “Train Travel Takes off in High Speed and Comfort,” Economic Times, 19 March 2010; “A High-Speed Revolution,” The Economist, 5 July 2007.
44. Keith B. Richburg, “China Is Pulling Ahead in Worldwide Race for High-Speed Rail Transportation,” Washington Post, 12 May 2010; “Zhengzhou–Xi’an High-Speed Train Starts Operation,” China Daily, 6 February 2010.
45. Richburg, op. cit. note 44; DOT, “Federal Railroad Administration Budget,” Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Highlights, atwww.dot.gov/budget/2010/bib2010.htm, May 2009.
46. Stuart F. Brown, “Revolutionary Rail: High-Speed Trains are Coming to the U.S.,” Scientific American, May 2010.
47. Dwight Eisenhower, “State of the Union Address,” 5 January 1956, at www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=10593.
48. Jack Kinstlinger, Magnetic Levitation High Speed Rail Service Along the Eastern Seaboard (Hunt Valley, MD: KCI Technologies, Inc., 2007).
49. Car weight from Stacy C. Davis and Susan W. Diegel, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 29 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, DOE, 2010), p. 4-16; bus weight from John Shonsey et al., RTD Bus Transit Facility Design Guidelines and Criteria (Denver, CO: Regional Transportation District, February 2006); car-to-bus ratio from American Public Transportation Association, The Benefits of Public Transportation—An Overview (Washington, DC: September 2002).
50. Richard Register, e-mail to author, 16 October 2007.
51. William McDonough and Michael Braungart, Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (New York: North Point Press, 2002); Rebecca Smith, “Beyond Recycling: Manufacturers Embrace ‘C2C’ Design,” Wall Street Journal, 3 March 2005.
52. U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries (Reston, VA: U.S. Department of the Interior, 2010); Brown, op. cit note 32; Ward’s Automotive Group, “Vehicles in Operation by Country,” op. cit. note 28; “Steel Recycling Rates at a Glance,” fact sheet (Pittsburgh, PA:Steel Recycling Institute, 2008).
53. Rona Fried, “Recycling Industry Offers Recession-Proof Investing,” Solar Today, July/August 2008, pp. 22–23.
54. EPA, “Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Recycling, and Disposal in the United States: Facts and Figures for 2008,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: 2009), p. 8; Courtney Gross, “City Garbage Plan Falls Short of Goals,” Gotham Gazette, 4 May 2010; City of Chicago, “2009 Chicago Waste Characterization Study and Waste Diversion Study Results,” atwww.cityofchicago.org/city/en/depts/doe/provdrs/waste_mang/news/2010/apr/2009_chicago_wastecharacterizationstudyandwastediversionstudyres.html, viewed 2 September 2010; City of Los Angeles, Department of Public Works, “Top Honors for City of Los Angeles’ Solid Waste Programs,” press release (Los Angeles: 30 June 2010); Bill Wilson, “Diversion from Landfill Exceeds Goal,” San Francisco Sentinel, 27 August 2010.
55. “New Hampshire Town Boosts Recycling with Pay-As-You-Throw,” Environment News Service, 21 March 2007; Skumatz Economic Research Associates, Inc., surveys for EPA, “2006 PAYT Programs: Pay-As-You-Throw at a Glance,” at www.epa.gov/epawaste/conserve/tools/payt/states/06comm.htm, viewed 17 August 2010.
56. Brenda Platt and Neil Seldman, Wasting and Recycling in the United States 2000 (Athens, GA: GrassRoots Recycling Network, 2000); Brenda Platt and Doug Rowe, Reduce, Reuse, Refill! (Washington, DC: Institute for Local Self-Reliance, 2002); David Saphire, Case Reopened: Reassessing Refillable Bottles (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1994).
57. Catherine Ferrier, Bottled Water: Understanding a Social Phenomenon (Surrey, U.K.: WWF, 2001).
58. Oil consumption calculated using number of plastic water bottles from Jennifer Gitlitz et al., Water, Water Everywhere: The Growth of Non-carbonated Beverages in the United States (Washington, DC: Container Recycling Institute, February 2007); I. Boustead, Eco-profiles of the European Plastics Industry: PET Bottles (Brussels: PlasticsEurope, Association of Plastics Manufacturers, March 2005), pp. 4–9; DOE, EIA, “Oil Market Basics: Demand,” atwww.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/full_contents.htm, viewed 24 September 2010; Pacific Institute, “Bottled Water and Energy,” fact sheet (Oakland, CA: 2007); DOE, EIA, “Crude Oil and Total Petroleum Imports Top 15 Countries,” atwww.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html, updated 29 September 2010.
59. Natalie Mims, Mathias Bell, and Stephen Doig, Assessing the Electric Productivity Gap and the U.S. Efficiency Opportunity (Snowmass, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, January 2009), pp. 6, 16–17.
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