6. Περιβαλλοντικοί πρόσφυγες η επερχόμενη πλημυρίδα
CHAPTER 6
1. Lester R. Brown, “Global Warming Forcing U.S. Coastal Population to Move Inland,” Eco-Economy Update(Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 16 August 2006).
2. Ibid.; Peter Grier, “The Great Katrina Migration,” Christian Science Monitor, 12 September 2005; Louisiana Recovery Authority, Migration Patterns: Estimates of Parish Level Migrations Due to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Baton Rouge, LA: August 2007), pp. 7–9; cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in World Resources Institute, Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) version 6.0 (Washington, DC: 2009), at cait.wri.org.
3. W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise,” Science, vol. 321, no. 5894 (5 September 2008), pp. 1,340–43.
4. Janet Larsen, “Hurricane Damages Soar to New Levels: Insurance Companies Abandoning Homeowners in High-Risk Coastal Areas,” Eco-Economy Update (Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 29 August 2006).
5. Rob Young and Orrin Pilkey, “How High Will Seas Rise? Get Ready for Seven Feet,” Yale Environment 360, 14 January 2010.
6. Environmental Justice Foundation, No Place Like Home: Where Next for Climate Refugees? (London: 2009), p. 23.
7. Alliance of Small Island States, “Members and Observers,” at www.sidsnet.org/aosis/members.html, viewed 15 July 2010.
8. Koko Warner et al., In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement (Atlanta: CARE International, 2009), pp. 18–19; “Tuvalu,” in Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, at www.cia.gov/library/publications, updated 24 June 2010; Environmental Justice Foundation, op. cit. note 6, pp. 18–19; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, atesa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009.
9. Carolina Fritz, “Climate Change and Migration: Sorting through Complex Issues Without the Hype,” Migration Policy Institute Feature (Washington, DC: 4 March 2010); Environmental Justice Foundation, op. cit. note 6, pp. 18–19.
10. Young and Pilkey, op. cit. note 5; Orrin H. Pilkey and Rob Young, The Rising Sea (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2009).
11. “The GISP2 Ice Coring Effort,” at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/document/gispinfo.htm, viewed 25 October 2010; U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007), pp. 100–03; contributions to sea level rise discussed in Catherine P. McMullen, ed., Climate Change Science Compendium 2009(Nairobi: UNEP, 2009), pp. 9, 27.
12. Gordon McGranahan et al., “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones,” Environment and Urbanization, vol. 18, no. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17–37.
13. Ibid.
14. Janet N. Abramovitz, “Averting Unnatural Disasters,” in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 2001 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), pp. 123–42.
15. Storm death toll from National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, “Mitch: The Deadliest Atlantic Hurricane Since 1780,” atwww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html, updated 1 July 2004; Flores quoted in Arturo Chavez et al., “After the Hurricane: Forest Sector Reconstruction in Honduras,” Forest Products Journal, vol. 51 (November/December 2001), pp. 18–24; gross domestic product from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, atwww.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28.
16. Michael Smith, “Bad Weather, Climate Change Cost World Record $90 Billion,” Bloomberg, 15 December 2004; Munich Re, Hurricanes: More Intense, More Frequent, More Expensive (Munich: 2006); Munich Re, Topics Geo: Natural Catastrophes (Munich: 2005–09); Christopher Doering, “Government Warns of Worst Hurricane Season Since 2005,”Reuters, 27 May 2010.
17. Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (Nigeria: November 1999); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 8; “Scientists Meeting in Tunis Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification,” UN News Service, 21 June 2006.
18. Iranian News Agency, “Official Warns of Impending Desertification Catastrophe in Southeast Iran,” BBC International Reports, 29 September 2002.
19. Brazil from Heitor Matallo, “General Approach to the Costs of Desertification,” presentation at International Workshop on the Cost of Inaction and Opportunities for Investment in Arid, Semi-Arid and Dry Sub-Humid Areas,” Rome, 4–5 December 2006; see also Lester R. Brown, Outgrowing the Earth (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2004), pp. 86–87; Mexico from Michelle Leighton Schwartz and Jessica Notini, Desertification and Migration: Mexico and the United States, U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform Research Paper (San Francisco: 1994); Thomas Faist and Stefan Alscher,Environmental Factors in Mexican Migration: The Cases of Chiapas and Tlaxcala, case study report on Mexico for the Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Project (Bielefield, Germany: 2009).
20. Wang Tao et al., “A Study on Spatial-temporal Changes of Sandy Desertified Land During Last 5 Decades in North China,” Acta Geographica Sinica, vol. 59 (2004), pp. 203–12; Wang Tao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, e-mail to author, 4 April 2004; Wang Tao, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China,” CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminar on desertification, held in Lanzhou, China, May 2002.
21. Wang, “Sandy Desertification in Northern China,” op. cit. note 20.
22. David Montgomery, Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2007), pp. 145–58; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 8; U.S. Embassy, Grapes of Wrath in Inner Mongolia (Beijing: May 2001).
23. Tushaar Shah et al., The Global Groundwater Situation: Overview of Opportunities and Challenges (Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 2000); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 8.
24. U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database, atesa.un.org/unup, updated 2008; Ulf Laessing, “Yemen’s Water Crisis Eclipses Al Qaeda Threat,” Reuters, 17 February 2010;U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), “Yemen,” AQUASTAT Country Profile, atwww.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/yemen/index.stm, updated 2009.
25. Alistair Lyon, “Water Crisis Threatens Yemen’s Swelling Population,” Reuters, 30 August 2009; altitude in Encyclopedia Britannica, “Sanaa,” at www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/521694/Sanaa, viewed 21 July 2010.
26. “Pakistan: Focus on Water Crisis,” Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) News, 17 May 2002.
27. FAO, “Syrian Arab Republic,” AQUASTAT Country Profile, at www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/syria/index.stm, updated 2009; FAO, “Iraq,” AQUASTAT Country Profile, at www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/iraq/index.stm, updated 2009.
28. Oli Brown and Alec Crawford, Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict in the Middle East (Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009), p. 26; note that the estimate for 160 villages refers to the 2007–08 drought period, but outmigration has continued since, per Olivier De Schutter, UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food: Mission to Syria from 29 August to 7 September 2010, preliminary conclusions, at www.srfood.org/index.php/en/component/content/article/1-latest-news/874-mission-to-syria-four-years-of-drought; Iraq figures refer to communities relying on karez aqueducts, with the total population uprooted likely to be higher, in Dale Lightfoot, Survey of Infiltration Karez in Northern Iraq: History and Current Status of Underground Aqueducts (Paris: UNESCO, September 2009), pp. 28–29; Amery quoted in Deborah Amos, “Mideast Water Crisis Brings Misery, Uncertainty,” National Public Radio, 8 January 2010.
29. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), “Love Canal,” Superfund Redevelopment Initiative, atwww.epa.gov/r02earth/superfund/npl/0201290c.pdf, viewed 29 April 2003, updated 25 January 2010.
30. Ibid.
31. EPA, “Times Beach One-Page Summary,” Superfund Redevelopment Initiative, at www.epa.gov/superfund/programs/recycle_old/success/1-pagers/timesbch.htm, updated 10 May 2010.
32. Aleg Cherp et al., The Human Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident (New York: U.N. Development Programme and UNICEF, 25 January 2002).
33. Lee Liu, “Made in China: Cancer Villages,” Environment, March/April 2010; China Ministry of Health statistics in Qin Xue-jun and Shi Huan-zhong, “Major Causes of Death During the Past 25 Years in China,” Chinese Medical Journal, vol. 120, no. 24 (2007), pp. 2,317–20, with updates from the Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China, “Health Career Statistics Bulletins,” at www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles//business/htmlfiles/zwgkzt/pwstj/index.htm; “Death Caused by Lung Cancer Soars in China,” Xinhua, 29 April 2008.
34. World Bank, Cost of Pollution in China: Estimates of Physical Damages, Conference Edition, (Washington, DC: February, 2007), pp. 45–46; Liu, op. cit. note 33.
35. “Hundreds Feared Drowned Off Libya,” BBC News, 31 March 2009; John Hooper, “Over 70 Migrants Feared Killed on Crossing to Europe,” Guardian (London), 28 August 2008; “Spain: 35 Reported Dead in Migrant Ordeal,” Associated Press, 26 August 2008.
36. Alan Cowell, “Migrants Found off Italy Boat Piled With Dead,” International Herald Tribune, 21 October 2003.
37. Ibid.
38. Miranda Leitsinger, “African Migrants Die an Ocean Away,” Washington Post, 2 June 2006; Mar Roman, “A New Record For Africans Risking Boat Route to Europe,” Washington Post, 4 September 2006; Frank Bruni, “Off Sicily, Tide of Bodies Roils Immigrant Debate,” New York Times, 23 September 2002; Flora Botsford, “Spain Recovers Drowned Migrants,” BBC News, 25 April 2002; “Boat Sinks Off Coast of Turkey: One Survivor and 7 Bodies Found,” Agence France-Presse, 22 December 2003.
39. Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, “Trade Brings Riches, But Not to Mexico’s Poor,” Washington Post, 22 March 2003; Robert McLeman and Barry Smit, “Climate Change, Migration and Security,” Commentary No. 86 (Ottawa: Canadian Security Intelligence Service, 2 March 2004); Amanda Lee Myers, “Immigrant Deaths in Arizona Desert Soaring in July,”Associated Press, 16 July 2010.
40. Tim Sullivan, “Neighbor India Quietly Fencing Out Bangladesh,” Associated Press, 26 June 2007; David Stout, “Bush, Signing Bill for Border Fence, Urges Wider Overhaul,” New York Times, 27 October 2006; Vladimir Radyuhin, “A Chinese ‘Invasion’,” World Press Review, vol. 50, no. 12 (December 2003); John Thorne, “Europe, Africa Seek to Limit Immigration,” Associated Press, 10 July 2006; Frontex, General Report 2009 (Warsaw: 2010).
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute
1. Lester R. Brown, “Global Warming Forcing U.S. Coastal Population to Move Inland,” Eco-Economy Update(Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 16 August 2006).
2. Ibid.; Peter Grier, “The Great Katrina Migration,” Christian Science Monitor, 12 September 2005; Louisiana Recovery Authority, Migration Patterns: Estimates of Parish Level Migrations Due to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Baton Rouge, LA: August 2007), pp. 7–9; cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in World Resources Institute, Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) version 6.0 (Washington, DC: 2009), at cait.wri.org.
3. W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise,” Science, vol. 321, no. 5894 (5 September 2008), pp. 1,340–43.
4. Janet Larsen, “Hurricane Damages Soar to New Levels: Insurance Companies Abandoning Homeowners in High-Risk Coastal Areas,” Eco-Economy Update (Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 29 August 2006).
5. Rob Young and Orrin Pilkey, “How High Will Seas Rise? Get Ready for Seven Feet,” Yale Environment 360, 14 January 2010.
6. Environmental Justice Foundation, No Place Like Home: Where Next for Climate Refugees? (London: 2009), p. 23.
7. Alliance of Small Island States, “Members and Observers,” at www.sidsnet.org/aosis/members.html, viewed 15 July 2010.
8. Koko Warner et al., In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement (Atlanta: CARE International, 2009), pp. 18–19; “Tuvalu,” in Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, at www.cia.gov/library/publications, updated 24 June 2010; Environmental Justice Foundation, op. cit. note 6, pp. 18–19; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, atesa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009.
9. Carolina Fritz, “Climate Change and Migration: Sorting through Complex Issues Without the Hype,” Migration Policy Institute Feature (Washington, DC: 4 March 2010); Environmental Justice Foundation, op. cit. note 6, pp. 18–19.
10. Young and Pilkey, op. cit. note 5; Orrin H. Pilkey and Rob Young, The Rising Sea (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2009).
11. “The GISP2 Ice Coring Effort,” at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/document/gispinfo.htm, viewed 25 October 2010; U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007), pp. 100–03; contributions to sea level rise discussed in Catherine P. McMullen, ed., Climate Change Science Compendium 2009(Nairobi: UNEP, 2009), pp. 9, 27.
12. Gordon McGranahan et al., “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones,” Environment and Urbanization, vol. 18, no. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17–37.
13. Ibid.
14. Janet N. Abramovitz, “Averting Unnatural Disasters,” in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 2001 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), pp. 123–42.
15. Storm death toll from National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, “Mitch: The Deadliest Atlantic Hurricane Since 1780,” atwww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html, updated 1 July 2004; Flores quoted in Arturo Chavez et al., “After the Hurricane: Forest Sector Reconstruction in Honduras,” Forest Products Journal, vol. 51 (November/December 2001), pp. 18–24; gross domestic product from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, atwww.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28.
16. Michael Smith, “Bad Weather, Climate Change Cost World Record $90 Billion,” Bloomberg, 15 December 2004; Munich Re, Hurricanes: More Intense, More Frequent, More Expensive (Munich: 2006); Munich Re, Topics Geo: Natural Catastrophes (Munich: 2005–09); Christopher Doering, “Government Warns of Worst Hurricane Season Since 2005,”Reuters, 27 May 2010.
17. Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (Nigeria: November 1999); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 8; “Scientists Meeting in Tunis Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification,” UN News Service, 21 June 2006.
18. Iranian News Agency, “Official Warns of Impending Desertification Catastrophe in Southeast Iran,” BBC International Reports, 29 September 2002.
19. Brazil from Heitor Matallo, “General Approach to the Costs of Desertification,” presentation at International Workshop on the Cost of Inaction and Opportunities for Investment in Arid, Semi-Arid and Dry Sub-Humid Areas,” Rome, 4–5 December 2006; see also Lester R. Brown, Outgrowing the Earth (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2004), pp. 86–87; Mexico from Michelle Leighton Schwartz and Jessica Notini, Desertification and Migration: Mexico and the United States, U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform Research Paper (San Francisco: 1994); Thomas Faist and Stefan Alscher,Environmental Factors in Mexican Migration: The Cases of Chiapas and Tlaxcala, case study report on Mexico for the Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Project (Bielefield, Germany: 2009).
20. Wang Tao et al., “A Study on Spatial-temporal Changes of Sandy Desertified Land During Last 5 Decades in North China,” Acta Geographica Sinica, vol. 59 (2004), pp. 203–12; Wang Tao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, e-mail to author, 4 April 2004; Wang Tao, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China,” CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminar on desertification, held in Lanzhou, China, May 2002.
21. Wang, “Sandy Desertification in Northern China,” op. cit. note 20.
22. David Montgomery, Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2007), pp. 145–58; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 8; U.S. Embassy, Grapes of Wrath in Inner Mongolia (Beijing: May 2001).
23. Tushaar Shah et al., The Global Groundwater Situation: Overview of Opportunities and Challenges (Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 2000); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 8.
24. U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database, atesa.un.org/unup, updated 2008; Ulf Laessing, “Yemen’s Water Crisis Eclipses Al Qaeda Threat,” Reuters, 17 February 2010;U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), “Yemen,” AQUASTAT Country Profile, atwww.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/yemen/index.stm, updated 2009.
25. Alistair Lyon, “Water Crisis Threatens Yemen’s Swelling Population,” Reuters, 30 August 2009; altitude in Encyclopedia Britannica, “Sanaa,” at www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/521694/Sanaa, viewed 21 July 2010.
26. “Pakistan: Focus on Water Crisis,” Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) News, 17 May 2002.
27. FAO, “Syrian Arab Republic,” AQUASTAT Country Profile, at www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/syria/index.stm, updated 2009; FAO, “Iraq,” AQUASTAT Country Profile, at www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/iraq/index.stm, updated 2009.
28. Oli Brown and Alec Crawford, Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict in the Middle East (Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009), p. 26; note that the estimate for 160 villages refers to the 2007–08 drought period, but outmigration has continued since, per Olivier De Schutter, UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food: Mission to Syria from 29 August to 7 September 2010, preliminary conclusions, at www.srfood.org/index.php/en/component/content/article/1-latest-news/874-mission-to-syria-four-years-of-drought; Iraq figures refer to communities relying on karez aqueducts, with the total population uprooted likely to be higher, in Dale Lightfoot, Survey of Infiltration Karez in Northern Iraq: History and Current Status of Underground Aqueducts (Paris: UNESCO, September 2009), pp. 28–29; Amery quoted in Deborah Amos, “Mideast Water Crisis Brings Misery, Uncertainty,” National Public Radio, 8 January 2010.
29. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), “Love Canal,” Superfund Redevelopment Initiative, atwww.epa.gov/r02earth/superfund/npl/0201290c.pdf, viewed 29 April 2003, updated 25 January 2010.
30. Ibid.
31. EPA, “Times Beach One-Page Summary,” Superfund Redevelopment Initiative, at www.epa.gov/superfund/programs/recycle_old/success/1-pagers/timesbch.htm, updated 10 May 2010.
32. Aleg Cherp et al., The Human Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident (New York: U.N. Development Programme and UNICEF, 25 January 2002).
33. Lee Liu, “Made in China: Cancer Villages,” Environment, March/April 2010; China Ministry of Health statistics in Qin Xue-jun and Shi Huan-zhong, “Major Causes of Death During the Past 25 Years in China,” Chinese Medical Journal, vol. 120, no. 24 (2007), pp. 2,317–20, with updates from the Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China, “Health Career Statistics Bulletins,” at www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles//business/htmlfiles/zwgkzt/pwstj/index.htm; “Death Caused by Lung Cancer Soars in China,” Xinhua, 29 April 2008.
34. World Bank, Cost of Pollution in China: Estimates of Physical Damages, Conference Edition, (Washington, DC: February, 2007), pp. 45–46; Liu, op. cit. note 33.
35. “Hundreds Feared Drowned Off Libya,” BBC News, 31 March 2009; John Hooper, “Over 70 Migrants Feared Killed on Crossing to Europe,” Guardian (London), 28 August 2008; “Spain: 35 Reported Dead in Migrant Ordeal,” Associated Press, 26 August 2008.
36. Alan Cowell, “Migrants Found off Italy Boat Piled With Dead,” International Herald Tribune, 21 October 2003.
37. Ibid.
38. Miranda Leitsinger, “African Migrants Die an Ocean Away,” Washington Post, 2 June 2006; Mar Roman, “A New Record For Africans Risking Boat Route to Europe,” Washington Post, 4 September 2006; Frank Bruni, “Off Sicily, Tide of Bodies Roils Immigrant Debate,” New York Times, 23 September 2002; Flora Botsford, “Spain Recovers Drowned Migrants,” BBC News, 25 April 2002; “Boat Sinks Off Coast of Turkey: One Survivor and 7 Bodies Found,” Agence France-Presse, 22 December 2003.
39. Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, “Trade Brings Riches, But Not to Mexico’s Poor,” Washington Post, 22 March 2003; Robert McLeman and Barry Smit, “Climate Change, Migration and Security,” Commentary No. 86 (Ottawa: Canadian Security Intelligence Service, 2 March 2004); Amanda Lee Myers, “Immigrant Deaths in Arizona Desert Soaring in July,”Associated Press, 16 July 2010.
40. Tim Sullivan, “Neighbor India Quietly Fencing Out Bangladesh,” Associated Press, 26 June 2007; David Stout, “Bush, Signing Bill for Border Fence, Urges Wider Overhaul,” New York Times, 27 October 2006; Vladimir Radyuhin, “A Chinese ‘Invasion’,” World Press Review, vol. 50, no. 12 (December 2003); John Thorne, “Europe, Africa Seek to Limit Immigration,” Associated Press, 10 July 2006; Frontex, General Report 2009 (Warsaw: 2010).
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute