12. Ο επισιτισμός οχτώ δισεκατομμυρίων ανθρώπων
CHAPTER 12
1. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009; U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 12 August 2010.
2. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
3. Lester R. Brown, Increasing World Food Output: Problems and Prospects, Foreign Agricultural Economic Report No. 25 (Washington, DC: USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), 1965), pp. 13–14; L. T. Evans, Crop Evolution, Adaptation and Yield (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1993), pp. 242–44.
4. USDA, op. cit. note 1; Margriet F. Caswell et al., Agricultural Biotechnology: An Economic Perspective (Washington, DC: USDA, ERS, 1998), p. 19; Kenneth G. Cassman and Adam J. Liska, “Food and Fuel for All: Realistic or Foolish?” Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, vol. 1, no. 1 (2007), pp. 18–23.
5. World Food Prize Foundation, “A World-Brand Name: Yuan Longping, The Father of Hybrid Rice,” atwww.worldfoodprize.org/laureates/yuan-spotlight.htm, viewed 15 July 2009.
6. Historical data compiled by Worldwatch Institute from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Fertilizer Yearbook (Rome: various years), and by Earth Policy Institute from International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA),IFADATA, electronic database, at www.fertilizer.org/ifa/ifadata/search, retrieved 18 August 2010; current data from Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud’homme, Fertilizer Outlook 2010 – 2014 (Paris: IFA, June 2010), p. 5, and from IFA, Fertilizer Consumption 2009/10–2014/15 Country Reports (Paris: June 2010), pp. 2, 3, 6, 7, 15, 26, 30, 31.
7. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
8. Ibid.; FAO, ProdSTAT, electronic database, at faostat.fao.org, updated September 2010; USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: August 2010).
9. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
10. Ibid.; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Crop Production 2009 Summary (Washington, DC: January 2010), p. 5.
11. Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2001), pp. 145–46; Thomas R. Sinclair, “Limits to Crop Yield?” in American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America,Physiology and Determination of Crop Yield (Madison, WI: 1994), pp. 509–32; USDA, op. cit. note 1.
12. World Bank, “Malawi, Fertilizer Subsidies and the World Bank,” at web.worldbank.org, viewed 14 July 2008; Celia W. Dugger, “Ending Famine, Simply by Ignoring the Experts,” New York Times, 2 December 2007; USDA, op. cit. note 1.
13. Ben Block, “African Leaders Pursue ‘Malawi Miracle,’” Eye on Earth, at www.worldwatch.org, 26 May 2009.
14. FAO, AQUASTAT: Countries and Regions, at www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/index.stm, viewed 16 October 2010.
15. Pedro Sanchez, “The Climate Change–Soil Fertility–Food Security Nexus,” summary note (Bonn: International Food Policy Research Institute, 4 September 2001).
16. USDA, NASS, op. cit. note 10, pp. 5, 13.
17. USDA, op. cit. note 1; 1950 data from USDA, in Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2001, CD-ROM (Washington, DC: 2001).
18. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
19. Zhu Keliang and Roy Prosterman, “From Land Rights to Economic Boom,” China Business Review, July–August 2006.
20. Land productivity from USDA, op. cit. note 1, with pre-1961 data from USDA, in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 17; Sandra Postel and Amy Vickers, “Boosting Water Productivity,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2004 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2004), pp. 51–52.
21. Wang Shucheng, discussion with author, Beijing, May 2004; Chen Lei, speech at the 3rd Academician Forum of Chinese Academy of Engineering on Hydraulic & Architecture Engineering (Wuhan: 27 September 2009), transcript atwww.mwr.gov.cn; “China to Improve Irrigation Efficiency,” Xinhua, 25 October 2009.
22. FAO, Crops and Drops (Rome: 2002), p. 17; Alain Vidal, Aline Comeau, and Hervé Plusquellec, Case Studies on Water Conservation in the Mediterranean Region (Rome: FAO, 2001), p. vii.
23. Postel and Vickers, op. cit. note 20, p. 53.
24. Sandra Postel et al., “Drip Irrigation for Small Farmers: A New Initiative to Alleviate Hunger and Poverty,” Water International, vol. 26, no. 1 (March 2001), pp. 3–13.
25. Ibid.
26. R. Maria Saleth and Arial Dinar, Water Challenge and Institutional Response: A Cross-Country Perspective(Washington, DC: World Bank, 1999), p. 6; Comisión Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA), National Water Program 2007–2012 (Coyoacán, Mexico: February 2008), p. 71.
27. USDA, op. cit. note 1; Cynthia Guven and Sherif Ibrahim, Egypt Grain and Feed Annual 2009 (Cairo: USDA, FAS, March 2009); “Rice Cropped for Water,” China Daily, 9 January 2002; “Output of Major Farm Products,” in National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook (Beijing: China Statistics Press, various years), on-line atwww.stats.gov.cn/english.
28. Water requirements of thermoelectric power plants from U.S. Geological Survey, Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2005 (Reston, VA: 2009), pp. 4–5.
29. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
30. FAO, 1948–1985 World Crop and Livestock Statistics (Rome: 1987); FAO,op. cit. note 8; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1.
31. Conversion ratio for feed-to-poultry derived from data in Robert V. Bishop et al., The World Poultry Market—Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform (Washington, DC: USDA, 1990); beef based on Allen Baker, Feed Situation and Outlook staff, USDA, ERS, discussion with author, 27 April 1992; pork from Leland Southard, Livestock and Poultry Situation and Outlook staff, USDA, ERS, discussion with author, 27 April 1992; fish from Rosamond Naylor et al., “Effect of Aquaculture on World Fish Supplies,” Nature, vol. 405 (29 June 2000), pp. 1,017–24; FAO, op. cit. note 8.
32. FAO, op. cit. note 8.
33. Ibid.; FAO, FISHSTAT Plus, electronic database, at www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/software/fishstat, updated March 2010.
34. FAO, op. cit. note 33; Taija-Riitta Tuominen and Maren Esmark, Food for Thought: The Use of Marine Resources in Fish Feed (Oslo: WWF-Norway, 2003); Rosamond Naylor and Marshall Burke, “Aquaculture and Ocean Resources: Raising Tigers of the Sea,” Annual Review of Environmental Resources, vol. 30 (November 2005), pp. 185–218.
35. S.F. Li, “Aquaculture Research and Its Relation to Development in China,” in World Fish Center, Agricultural Development and the Opportunities for Aquatic Resources Research in China (Penang, Malaysia: 2001), p. 26; Naylor et al., op. cit. note 31; M.C. Nandeesha et al., eds., Breeding of Carps with Ovaprim in India, Asian Fisheries Society Special Publication No. 4 (Mangalore, India: Asian Fisheries Society, Indian Branch, 1990), p. 1; FAO,op. cit. note 8; FAO, op. cit. note 33.
36. USDA, FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: August 2010).
37. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
38. FAO, op. cit. note 8; USDA, op. cit. note 1.
39. FAO, op. cit. note 8.
40. S. C. Dhall and Meena Dhall, “Dairy Industry—India’s Strength in Its Livestock,” Business Line, Internet Edition ofFinancial Daily, Hindu group of publications, 7 November 1997; see also Surinder Sud, “India Is Now World’s Largest Milk Producer,” India Perspectives, May 1999, pp. 25–26; A. Banerjee, “Dairying Systems in India,” World Animal Review, vol. 79, no. 2 (1994); FAO,op. cit. note 8; value from Government of India, Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries, Annual Report 2008–09 (New Delhi: 2009), p. 11.
41. John Wade, Adam Branson, and Xiang Qing, China Grain and Feed Annual Report 2002 (Beijing: USDA, FAS, 2002); Gao Tengyun, “Treatment and Utilization of Crop Straw and Stover in China,” Livestock Research for Rural Development, vol. 12, no. 1 (February 2000); USDA, ERS, “China’s Beef Economy: Production, Marketing, Consumption, and Foreign Trade,” International Agriculture and Trade Reports: China (Washington, DC: July 1998), p. 28; “Output of Livestock Products,” in National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2009 (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009), on-line at www.stats.gov.cn/english.
42. National Gardening Association, The Impact of Home and Community Gardening in America (South Burlington, VT: 2009), p. 4; USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), “Farmers Market Growth: 1994–2010,” at www.ams.usda.gov, updated 4 August 2010.
43. USDA, NASS, 2007 Census of Agriculture (Washington, DC: February 2009), pp. 7, 64, 110–11; Andrew Martin, “Farm Living (Subsidized by a Job Elsewhere),” New York Times, 8 February 2009.
44. USDA, op. cit. note 42.
45. Marian Burros, “Supermarket Chains Narrow Their Sights,” New York Times, 6 August 2008; Stephanie Clifford, “Wal-Mart to Buy More Local Produce,” New York Times, 14 October 2010; “Digging Their Way Out of Recession,” The Economist, 26 February 2009.
46. Marian Burros, “Obamas to Plant Vegetable Garden at White House,” New York Times, 20 March 2009; Michael Pollan, “Farmer in Chief,” New York Times Magazine, 12 October 2008.
47. Cristina Milesi et al., “Mapping and Modeling the Biogeochemical Cycling of Turf Grasses in the United States,”Environmental Management, vol. 36, no. 3 (19 July 2005), pp. 426–38.
48. Lisa McLaughlin, “Inner-City Farms,” Time, 4 August 2008; “Digging Their Way Out of Recession,” op. cit. note 45; Adrian Higgins, “Community Gardens Need Room to Grow,” Washington Post, 14 February 2008.
49. FAO, Growing Greener Cities (Rome: 2010), pp. 5–7, 13.
50. Ibid., pp. 6–7; FAO, “Growing Greener Cities: Projects,” at www.fao.org/ag/agp/greenercities/en/projects/index.html, updated 2010.
51. Caryn Rousseau, “More Schools Cultivate Learning in Student Gardens,” Associated Press, 17 November 2008; Mary MacVean, “Maria Shriver Says Edible Garden Will Be Planted in Capitol Park Flower Bed,” Los Angeles Times, 27 March 2009.
52. Rich Pirog and Andrew Benjamin, Checking the Food Odometer: Comparing Food Miles for Local Versus Conventional Produce Sales to Iowa Institutions (Ames, IA: Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture, Iowa State University, July 2003); Michael Pollan, In Defense of Food (New York: The Penguin Group, 2008), pp. 157–58; Marc Xuereb, Food Miles: Environmental Implications of Food Imports to Waterloo Region (Waterloo, ON: Region of Waterloo Public Health, November 2005).
53. Lauren Etter, “Lofty Prices for Fertilizer Put Farmers in a Squeeze,” Wall Street Journal, 27 May 2008; David A. Vaccari, “Phosphorus: A Looming Crisis,” Scientific American, June 2009, pp. 54–59; long-term natural gas price trends from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (Washington, DC: May 2010), pp. 70–71.
54. Author’s calculations from USDA, op. cit. note 1; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1.
55. U.N. Environment Programme, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi, Kenya: 2007), pp. 130–31, 139–40; Upali A. Amarasinghe et al., Spatial Variation in Water Supply and Demand Across River Basins of India (Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI), 2005), p. 8; Upali A. Amarasinghe et al., Water Supply, Water Demand and Agricultural Water Scarcity in China: A Basin Approach (Colombo, Sri Lanka: IWMI, 2005), p. 10; Lester R. Brown, “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India,” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 20 March 2008).
56. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
57. Chicago Board of Trade futures data from TFC Commodity Charts, “Grain & Oilseed Commodities Futures,” atfutures.tradingcharts.com/grains_oilseeds.html, viewed 21 July 2010.
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute
1. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009; U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 12 August 2010.
2. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
3. Lester R. Brown, Increasing World Food Output: Problems and Prospects, Foreign Agricultural Economic Report No. 25 (Washington, DC: USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), 1965), pp. 13–14; L. T. Evans, Crop Evolution, Adaptation and Yield (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1993), pp. 242–44.
4. USDA, op. cit. note 1; Margriet F. Caswell et al., Agricultural Biotechnology: An Economic Perspective (Washington, DC: USDA, ERS, 1998), p. 19; Kenneth G. Cassman and Adam J. Liska, “Food and Fuel for All: Realistic or Foolish?” Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, vol. 1, no. 1 (2007), pp. 18–23.
5. World Food Prize Foundation, “A World-Brand Name: Yuan Longping, The Father of Hybrid Rice,” atwww.worldfoodprize.org/laureates/yuan-spotlight.htm, viewed 15 July 2009.
6. Historical data compiled by Worldwatch Institute from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Fertilizer Yearbook (Rome: various years), and by Earth Policy Institute from International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA),IFADATA, electronic database, at www.fertilizer.org/ifa/ifadata/search, retrieved 18 August 2010; current data from Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud’homme, Fertilizer Outlook 2010 – 2014 (Paris: IFA, June 2010), p. 5, and from IFA, Fertilizer Consumption 2009/10–2014/15 Country Reports (Paris: June 2010), pp. 2, 3, 6, 7, 15, 26, 30, 31.
7. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
8. Ibid.; FAO, ProdSTAT, electronic database, at faostat.fao.org, updated September 2010; USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: August 2010).
9. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
10. Ibid.; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Crop Production 2009 Summary (Washington, DC: January 2010), p. 5.
11. Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2001), pp. 145–46; Thomas R. Sinclair, “Limits to Crop Yield?” in American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America,Physiology and Determination of Crop Yield (Madison, WI: 1994), pp. 509–32; USDA, op. cit. note 1.
12. World Bank, “Malawi, Fertilizer Subsidies and the World Bank,” at web.worldbank.org, viewed 14 July 2008; Celia W. Dugger, “Ending Famine, Simply by Ignoring the Experts,” New York Times, 2 December 2007; USDA, op. cit. note 1.
13. Ben Block, “African Leaders Pursue ‘Malawi Miracle,’” Eye on Earth, at www.worldwatch.org, 26 May 2009.
14. FAO, AQUASTAT: Countries and Regions, at www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/index.stm, viewed 16 October 2010.
15. Pedro Sanchez, “The Climate Change–Soil Fertility–Food Security Nexus,” summary note (Bonn: International Food Policy Research Institute, 4 September 2001).
16. USDA, NASS, op. cit. note 10, pp. 5, 13.
17. USDA, op. cit. note 1; 1950 data from USDA, in Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2001, CD-ROM (Washington, DC: 2001).
18. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
19. Zhu Keliang and Roy Prosterman, “From Land Rights to Economic Boom,” China Business Review, July–August 2006.
20. Land productivity from USDA, op. cit. note 1, with pre-1961 data from USDA, in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 17; Sandra Postel and Amy Vickers, “Boosting Water Productivity,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2004 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2004), pp. 51–52.
21. Wang Shucheng, discussion with author, Beijing, May 2004; Chen Lei, speech at the 3rd Academician Forum of Chinese Academy of Engineering on Hydraulic & Architecture Engineering (Wuhan: 27 September 2009), transcript atwww.mwr.gov.cn; “China to Improve Irrigation Efficiency,” Xinhua, 25 October 2009.
22. FAO, Crops and Drops (Rome: 2002), p. 17; Alain Vidal, Aline Comeau, and Hervé Plusquellec, Case Studies on Water Conservation in the Mediterranean Region (Rome: FAO, 2001), p. vii.
23. Postel and Vickers, op. cit. note 20, p. 53.
24. Sandra Postel et al., “Drip Irrigation for Small Farmers: A New Initiative to Alleviate Hunger and Poverty,” Water International, vol. 26, no. 1 (March 2001), pp. 3–13.
25. Ibid.
26. R. Maria Saleth and Arial Dinar, Water Challenge and Institutional Response: A Cross-Country Perspective(Washington, DC: World Bank, 1999), p. 6; Comisión Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA), National Water Program 2007–2012 (Coyoacán, Mexico: February 2008), p. 71.
27. USDA, op. cit. note 1; Cynthia Guven and Sherif Ibrahim, Egypt Grain and Feed Annual 2009 (Cairo: USDA, FAS, March 2009); “Rice Cropped for Water,” China Daily, 9 January 2002; “Output of Major Farm Products,” in National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook (Beijing: China Statistics Press, various years), on-line atwww.stats.gov.cn/english.
28. Water requirements of thermoelectric power plants from U.S. Geological Survey, Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2005 (Reston, VA: 2009), pp. 4–5.
29. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
30. FAO, 1948–1985 World Crop and Livestock Statistics (Rome: 1987); FAO,op. cit. note 8; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1.
31. Conversion ratio for feed-to-poultry derived from data in Robert V. Bishop et al., The World Poultry Market—Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform (Washington, DC: USDA, 1990); beef based on Allen Baker, Feed Situation and Outlook staff, USDA, ERS, discussion with author, 27 April 1992; pork from Leland Southard, Livestock and Poultry Situation and Outlook staff, USDA, ERS, discussion with author, 27 April 1992; fish from Rosamond Naylor et al., “Effect of Aquaculture on World Fish Supplies,” Nature, vol. 405 (29 June 2000), pp. 1,017–24; FAO, op. cit. note 8.
32. FAO, op. cit. note 8.
33. Ibid.; FAO, FISHSTAT Plus, electronic database, at www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/software/fishstat, updated March 2010.
34. FAO, op. cit. note 33; Taija-Riitta Tuominen and Maren Esmark, Food for Thought: The Use of Marine Resources in Fish Feed (Oslo: WWF-Norway, 2003); Rosamond Naylor and Marshall Burke, “Aquaculture and Ocean Resources: Raising Tigers of the Sea,” Annual Review of Environmental Resources, vol. 30 (November 2005), pp. 185–218.
35. S.F. Li, “Aquaculture Research and Its Relation to Development in China,” in World Fish Center, Agricultural Development and the Opportunities for Aquatic Resources Research in China (Penang, Malaysia: 2001), p. 26; Naylor et al., op. cit. note 31; M.C. Nandeesha et al., eds., Breeding of Carps with Ovaprim in India, Asian Fisheries Society Special Publication No. 4 (Mangalore, India: Asian Fisheries Society, Indian Branch, 1990), p. 1; FAO,op. cit. note 8; FAO, op. cit. note 33.
36. USDA, FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: August 2010).
37. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
38. FAO, op. cit. note 8; USDA, op. cit. note 1.
39. FAO, op. cit. note 8.
40. S. C. Dhall and Meena Dhall, “Dairy Industry—India’s Strength in Its Livestock,” Business Line, Internet Edition ofFinancial Daily, Hindu group of publications, 7 November 1997; see also Surinder Sud, “India Is Now World’s Largest Milk Producer,” India Perspectives, May 1999, pp. 25–26; A. Banerjee, “Dairying Systems in India,” World Animal Review, vol. 79, no. 2 (1994); FAO,op. cit. note 8; value from Government of India, Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries, Annual Report 2008–09 (New Delhi: 2009), p. 11.
41. John Wade, Adam Branson, and Xiang Qing, China Grain and Feed Annual Report 2002 (Beijing: USDA, FAS, 2002); Gao Tengyun, “Treatment and Utilization of Crop Straw and Stover in China,” Livestock Research for Rural Development, vol. 12, no. 1 (February 2000); USDA, ERS, “China’s Beef Economy: Production, Marketing, Consumption, and Foreign Trade,” International Agriculture and Trade Reports: China (Washington, DC: July 1998), p. 28; “Output of Livestock Products,” in National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2009 (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009), on-line at www.stats.gov.cn/english.
42. National Gardening Association, The Impact of Home and Community Gardening in America (South Burlington, VT: 2009), p. 4; USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), “Farmers Market Growth: 1994–2010,” at www.ams.usda.gov, updated 4 August 2010.
43. USDA, NASS, 2007 Census of Agriculture (Washington, DC: February 2009), pp. 7, 64, 110–11; Andrew Martin, “Farm Living (Subsidized by a Job Elsewhere),” New York Times, 8 February 2009.
44. USDA, op. cit. note 42.
45. Marian Burros, “Supermarket Chains Narrow Their Sights,” New York Times, 6 August 2008; Stephanie Clifford, “Wal-Mart to Buy More Local Produce,” New York Times, 14 October 2010; “Digging Their Way Out of Recession,” The Economist, 26 February 2009.
46. Marian Burros, “Obamas to Plant Vegetable Garden at White House,” New York Times, 20 March 2009; Michael Pollan, “Farmer in Chief,” New York Times Magazine, 12 October 2008.
47. Cristina Milesi et al., “Mapping and Modeling the Biogeochemical Cycling of Turf Grasses in the United States,”Environmental Management, vol. 36, no. 3 (19 July 2005), pp. 426–38.
48. Lisa McLaughlin, “Inner-City Farms,” Time, 4 August 2008; “Digging Their Way Out of Recession,” op. cit. note 45; Adrian Higgins, “Community Gardens Need Room to Grow,” Washington Post, 14 February 2008.
49. FAO, Growing Greener Cities (Rome: 2010), pp. 5–7, 13.
50. Ibid., pp. 6–7; FAO, “Growing Greener Cities: Projects,” at www.fao.org/ag/agp/greenercities/en/projects/index.html, updated 2010.
51. Caryn Rousseau, “More Schools Cultivate Learning in Student Gardens,” Associated Press, 17 November 2008; Mary MacVean, “Maria Shriver Says Edible Garden Will Be Planted in Capitol Park Flower Bed,” Los Angeles Times, 27 March 2009.
52. Rich Pirog and Andrew Benjamin, Checking the Food Odometer: Comparing Food Miles for Local Versus Conventional Produce Sales to Iowa Institutions (Ames, IA: Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture, Iowa State University, July 2003); Michael Pollan, In Defense of Food (New York: The Penguin Group, 2008), pp. 157–58; Marc Xuereb, Food Miles: Environmental Implications of Food Imports to Waterloo Region (Waterloo, ON: Region of Waterloo Public Health, November 2005).
53. Lauren Etter, “Lofty Prices for Fertilizer Put Farmers in a Squeeze,” Wall Street Journal, 27 May 2008; David A. Vaccari, “Phosphorus: A Looming Crisis,” Scientific American, June 2009, pp. 54–59; long-term natural gas price trends from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (Washington, DC: May 2010), pp. 70–71.
54. Author’s calculations from USDA, op. cit. note 1; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1.
55. U.N. Environment Programme, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi, Kenya: 2007), pp. 130–31, 139–40; Upali A. Amarasinghe et al., Spatial Variation in Water Supply and Demand Across River Basins of India (Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI), 2005), p. 8; Upali A. Amarasinghe et al., Water Supply, Water Demand and Agricultural Water Scarcity in China: A Basin Approach (Colombo, Sri Lanka: IWMI, 2005), p. 10; Lester R. Brown, “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India,” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 20 March 2008).
56. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
57. Chicago Board of Trade futures data from TFC Commodity Charts, “Grain & Oilseed Commodities Futures,” atfutures.tradingcharts.com/grains_oilseeds.html, viewed 21 July 2010.
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute