11. Η εξάλειψη της φτώχιας, η σταθεροποίηση του πληθυσμού και η διάσωση των υπό διάλυση κρατών
CHAPTER 11
1. Pamela Polston, “Lowering the Boom: Population Activist Bill Ryerson is Saving the World—One ‘Soap’ at a Time,”Seven Days, 21 August 2005.
2. Ibid.
3. Population Media Center, “Ethiopia: Dhimbibba,” at www.populationmedia.org, updated 2009; Polston, op. cit. note 1.
4. Population Media Center, op. cit. note 3; Polston, op. cit. note 1.
5. World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2010: The MDGs After the Crisis (Washington, DC: 2010), pp. 13–26; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009.
6. World Bank, Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads 2009 (Washington, DC: 2009), p. xi.
7. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (Rome: 2010), pp. 8–11; FAO, “Number of Undernourished Persons,” table at www.fao.org/economic/ess/food-security-statistics, updated 13 September 2010.
8. World Bank, op. cit. note 5, p. 15; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.
9. “Brazil’s Bolsa Familia: How to Get Children out of Jobs and into School,” The Economist, 29 July 2010; amount of assistance from UNESCO, Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2009: Overcoming Inequality: Why Governance Matters (Paris: 2008), p. 195; poverty rates from World Bank, “Millennium Development Goals—Country Tables,” World Development Indicators, at www.developmentgoals.org, updated 2010; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5; income statistics and quotation from Sara Miller Llana, “Brazil Becomes Antipoverty Showcase,” Christian Science Monitor, 13 November 2008.
10. Hilaire A. Mputu, Literacy and Non-Formal Education in the E-9 Countries (Paris: UNESCO, 2001), p. 5; Polly Curtis, “Lack of Education ‘a Greater Threat than Terrorism’: Sen,” Guardian (London), 28 October 2003.
11. Number of children not in school from U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Millennium Development Goals Report 2010 (New York: June 2010), p. 17; gender parity statistic from World Bank, op. cit. note 5, p. 16; Gene Sperling, “Toward Universal Education,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2001, pp. 7–13.
12. Illiteracy rate from UNESCO, Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010: Reaching the Marginalized (Paris: 2010), p. 94; adult literacy program cost is author’s estimate based on U.N. Commission on Population and Development, Thirty-sixth Session: Population, Education, and Development, press releases (New York: 31 March–4 April 2003); UNESCO, “Winners of UNESCO Literacy Prizes 2003,” press release (Paris: 27 May 2003).
13. World Bank, “EFA Fast Track Initiative (FTI) and the World Bank,” at www.worldbank.org/education/efafti, viewed 9 September 2010; UNESCO, Reaching the Marginalized, op. cit. note 12, pp. 119–31; Annababette Wils et al., Estimating the Costs of Achieving Education for All in Low-Income Countries, paper commissioned for Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 (Paris: Education Policy and Data Center and UNESCO, December 2009).
14. Jeffrey Sachs, “A New Map of the World,” The Economist, 22 June 2000; George McGovern, The Third Freedom: Ending Hunger in Our Time (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001), chapter 1.
15. U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), “Two Minutes to Learn About: School Meals,” fact sheet (Rome: May 2010); Aulo Gelli et al., “Does Provision of Food in School Increase Girls’ Enrollment? Evidence from Schools in Sub-Saharan Africa,”Food and Nutrition Bulletin, vol. 28, no. 2 (2007), pp. 149–55.
16. McGovern, op. cit. note 14, chapter 1; cost is author’s estimate, based on George McGovern, “Yes We CAN Feed the World’s Hungry,” Parade, 16 December 2001.
17. World Bank, op. cit. note 5, p. 88; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Water Efficiency Technology Factsheet—Composting Toilets” (Washington, DC: September 1999).
18. World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF, and World Bank, “Investing in Immunization,” in WHO, State of the World’s Vaccines and Immunization, 3rd ed. (Geneva: 2009), pp. 73–91; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, “Bill and Melinda Gates Pledge $10 Billion in Call for Decade of Vaccines,” press release (Davos, Switzerland: 29 January 2010).
19. Jeffrey D. Sachs and Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development (Geneva: WHO, 2001).
20. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.
21. Susheela Singh et al., Adding It Up: The Costs and Benefits of Investing in Family Planning and Maternal and Newborn Health (New York: Guttmacher Institute and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), 2009), p. 4; quotation from All Party Parliamentary Group on Population Development and Reproductive Health, Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact on the Millennium Development Goals (London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, January 2007), p. 22.
22. Singh et al., op. cit. note 21, pp. 4–5, 19; cost of universal reproductive health and family planning calculated by Earth Policy Institute, based on UNFPA, Flow of Financial Resources for Assisting in the Implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development, report for the U.N. Economic and Social Council Commission on Population and Development (New York: 21 January 2009), and on J. Joseph Speidel, University of California, San Francisco Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health, discussion with and e-mail to Brigid Fitzgerald Reading, Earth Policy Institute, 8 October 2010; closing the condom gap estimated from Population Action International, “Why Condoms Count in the Era of HIV/AIDS,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: 2008), and from UNFPA, Donor Support for Contraceptives and Condoms for STI/HIV Prevention 2007 (New York: 2008).
23. Janet Larsen, “Iran’s Birth Rate Plummeting at Record Pace,” in Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts, The Earth Policy Reader (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2002), pp. 190–94.
24. Larsen, op. cit. note 23.
25. Ibid.; Iran population growth rate from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5; for additional information, see also Homa Hoodfar and Samad Assadpour, “The Politics of Population Policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Studies in Family Planning, vol. 31, no. 1 (March 2000), pp. 19–34, and Farzaneh Roudi, “Iran’s Family Planning Program: Responding to a Nation’s Needs,” MENA Policy Brief, June 2002.
26. Larsen, op. cit. note 23.
27. Ibid.
28. Ibid.
29. “Iran’s Leader Introduces Plan to Encourage Population Growth by Paying Families,” Associated Press, 27 July 2010.
30. “Bangladesh: National Family Planning Program,” Family Planning Programs: Diverse Solutions for a Global Challenge (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau (PRB), 1994); Singh et al., op. cit. note 21.
31. The countries considered here to be caught in the demographic trap all have fertility rates of four children per woman or higher, from PRB, 2010 World Population Data Sheet DataFinder, electronic database, at www.prb.org; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.
32. UNFPA, The State of World Population 2004 (New York: 2004), pp. 14–15.
33. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5; Richard P. Cincotta, Robert Engelman, and Daniele Anastasion, The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Population Action International, 2003), chapter 2.
34. Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion, op. cit. note 33, chapter 2.
35. Alex Duncan, Gareth Williams, and Juana de Catheu, Monitoring the Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2010).
36. Ibid.; Stewart Patrick and Kaysie Brown, “Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts? Assessing ‘Whole of Government’ Approaches to Fragile States,” CGD Brief (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD), 2007); Pauline H. Baker, “Forging a U.S. Policy Toward Fragile States,” Prism, vol. 1, no. 2 (March 2010), pp. 69–84.
37. The U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century, Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change (Washington, DC: February 2001), p. 53.
38. Commission on Weak States and U.S. National Security, On the Brink: Weak States and U.S. National Security(Washington, DC: CGD, 2004), pp. 30–32.
39. Failing states ranking from Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index,” Foreign Policy, July/August issues, 2005–10; lives lost from U.S. Department of State, “Background Note: Liberia,” atwww.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/6618.htm, updated June 2009; María Cristina Caballero, “‘Ma Ellen,’ African Symbol of Hope, Returns to Harvard,” Harvard University Gazette, 16 September 2006; number of troops and timing from “UN’s Ban to Visit Liberia as Blue Helmets Prepare Pullout,” Agence France-Presse, 20 April 2008.
40. John W. Blaney, “Lessons from Liberia’s Success: Thoughts on Leadership, the Process of Peace, Security, and Justice,” Prism, vol. 1, no. 2 (March 2010), pp. 101–10.
41. See detailed table in Chapter 13. Costs of meeting basic social goals based on the following sources: universal primary education from UNESCO, op. cit. note 12, pp. 119–31, and from Wils et al., op. cit. note 13; eradication of adult illiteracy is author’s estimate based on U.N. Commission on Population and Development, op. cit. note 12; school lunch programs from WFP, op. cit. note 15; aid to women, infants, and preschool children is author’s estimate, based on McGovern, op. cit. note 16; universal reproductive health and family planning calculated by Earth Policy Institute, based on UNFPA, Flow of Financial Resources, op. cit. note 22, and on Speidel, op. cit. note 22, with cost of closing the condom gap estimated from Population Action International, op. cit. note 22, and from UNFPA, Donor Support, op. cit. note 22; universal basic health care from Sachs and Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, op. cit. note 19.
42. Jeffrey D. Sachs, The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time (New York: Penguin Group, 2005).
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute
1. Pamela Polston, “Lowering the Boom: Population Activist Bill Ryerson is Saving the World—One ‘Soap’ at a Time,”Seven Days, 21 August 2005.
2. Ibid.
3. Population Media Center, “Ethiopia: Dhimbibba,” at www.populationmedia.org, updated 2009; Polston, op. cit. note 1.
4. Population Media Center, op. cit. note 3; Polston, op. cit. note 1.
5. World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2010: The MDGs After the Crisis (Washington, DC: 2010), pp. 13–26; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009.
6. World Bank, Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads 2009 (Washington, DC: 2009), p. xi.
7. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (Rome: 2010), pp. 8–11; FAO, “Number of Undernourished Persons,” table at www.fao.org/economic/ess/food-security-statistics, updated 13 September 2010.
8. World Bank, op. cit. note 5, p. 15; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.
9. “Brazil’s Bolsa Familia: How to Get Children out of Jobs and into School,” The Economist, 29 July 2010; amount of assistance from UNESCO, Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2009: Overcoming Inequality: Why Governance Matters (Paris: 2008), p. 195; poverty rates from World Bank, “Millennium Development Goals—Country Tables,” World Development Indicators, at www.developmentgoals.org, updated 2010; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5; income statistics and quotation from Sara Miller Llana, “Brazil Becomes Antipoverty Showcase,” Christian Science Monitor, 13 November 2008.
10. Hilaire A. Mputu, Literacy and Non-Formal Education in the E-9 Countries (Paris: UNESCO, 2001), p. 5; Polly Curtis, “Lack of Education ‘a Greater Threat than Terrorism’: Sen,” Guardian (London), 28 October 2003.
11. Number of children not in school from U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Millennium Development Goals Report 2010 (New York: June 2010), p. 17; gender parity statistic from World Bank, op. cit. note 5, p. 16; Gene Sperling, “Toward Universal Education,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2001, pp. 7–13.
12. Illiteracy rate from UNESCO, Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010: Reaching the Marginalized (Paris: 2010), p. 94; adult literacy program cost is author’s estimate based on U.N. Commission on Population and Development, Thirty-sixth Session: Population, Education, and Development, press releases (New York: 31 March–4 April 2003); UNESCO, “Winners of UNESCO Literacy Prizes 2003,” press release (Paris: 27 May 2003).
13. World Bank, “EFA Fast Track Initiative (FTI) and the World Bank,” at www.worldbank.org/education/efafti, viewed 9 September 2010; UNESCO, Reaching the Marginalized, op. cit. note 12, pp. 119–31; Annababette Wils et al., Estimating the Costs of Achieving Education for All in Low-Income Countries, paper commissioned for Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 (Paris: Education Policy and Data Center and UNESCO, December 2009).
14. Jeffrey Sachs, “A New Map of the World,” The Economist, 22 June 2000; George McGovern, The Third Freedom: Ending Hunger in Our Time (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001), chapter 1.
15. U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), “Two Minutes to Learn About: School Meals,” fact sheet (Rome: May 2010); Aulo Gelli et al., “Does Provision of Food in School Increase Girls’ Enrollment? Evidence from Schools in Sub-Saharan Africa,”Food and Nutrition Bulletin, vol. 28, no. 2 (2007), pp. 149–55.
16. McGovern, op. cit. note 14, chapter 1; cost is author’s estimate, based on George McGovern, “Yes We CAN Feed the World’s Hungry,” Parade, 16 December 2001.
17. World Bank, op. cit. note 5, p. 88; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Water Efficiency Technology Factsheet—Composting Toilets” (Washington, DC: September 1999).
18. World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF, and World Bank, “Investing in Immunization,” in WHO, State of the World’s Vaccines and Immunization, 3rd ed. (Geneva: 2009), pp. 73–91; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, “Bill and Melinda Gates Pledge $10 Billion in Call for Decade of Vaccines,” press release (Davos, Switzerland: 29 January 2010).
19. Jeffrey D. Sachs and Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development (Geneva: WHO, 2001).
20. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.
21. Susheela Singh et al., Adding It Up: The Costs and Benefits of Investing in Family Planning and Maternal and Newborn Health (New York: Guttmacher Institute and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), 2009), p. 4; quotation from All Party Parliamentary Group on Population Development and Reproductive Health, Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact on the Millennium Development Goals (London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, January 2007), p. 22.
22. Singh et al., op. cit. note 21, pp. 4–5, 19; cost of universal reproductive health and family planning calculated by Earth Policy Institute, based on UNFPA, Flow of Financial Resources for Assisting in the Implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development, report for the U.N. Economic and Social Council Commission on Population and Development (New York: 21 January 2009), and on J. Joseph Speidel, University of California, San Francisco Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health, discussion with and e-mail to Brigid Fitzgerald Reading, Earth Policy Institute, 8 October 2010; closing the condom gap estimated from Population Action International, “Why Condoms Count in the Era of HIV/AIDS,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: 2008), and from UNFPA, Donor Support for Contraceptives and Condoms for STI/HIV Prevention 2007 (New York: 2008).
23. Janet Larsen, “Iran’s Birth Rate Plummeting at Record Pace,” in Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts, The Earth Policy Reader (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2002), pp. 190–94.
24. Larsen, op. cit. note 23.
25. Ibid.; Iran population growth rate from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5; for additional information, see also Homa Hoodfar and Samad Assadpour, “The Politics of Population Policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Studies in Family Planning, vol. 31, no. 1 (March 2000), pp. 19–34, and Farzaneh Roudi, “Iran’s Family Planning Program: Responding to a Nation’s Needs,” MENA Policy Brief, June 2002.
26. Larsen, op. cit. note 23.
27. Ibid.
28. Ibid.
29. “Iran’s Leader Introduces Plan to Encourage Population Growth by Paying Families,” Associated Press, 27 July 2010.
30. “Bangladesh: National Family Planning Program,” Family Planning Programs: Diverse Solutions for a Global Challenge (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau (PRB), 1994); Singh et al., op. cit. note 21.
31. The countries considered here to be caught in the demographic trap all have fertility rates of four children per woman or higher, from PRB, 2010 World Population Data Sheet DataFinder, electronic database, at www.prb.org; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.
32. UNFPA, The State of World Population 2004 (New York: 2004), pp. 14–15.
33. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5; Richard P. Cincotta, Robert Engelman, and Daniele Anastasion, The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Population Action International, 2003), chapter 2.
34. Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion, op. cit. note 33, chapter 2.
35. Alex Duncan, Gareth Williams, and Juana de Catheu, Monitoring the Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2010).
36. Ibid.; Stewart Patrick and Kaysie Brown, “Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts? Assessing ‘Whole of Government’ Approaches to Fragile States,” CGD Brief (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD), 2007); Pauline H. Baker, “Forging a U.S. Policy Toward Fragile States,” Prism, vol. 1, no. 2 (March 2010), pp. 69–84.
37. The U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century, Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change (Washington, DC: February 2001), p. 53.
38. Commission on Weak States and U.S. National Security, On the Brink: Weak States and U.S. National Security(Washington, DC: CGD, 2004), pp. 30–32.
39. Failing states ranking from Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index,” Foreign Policy, July/August issues, 2005–10; lives lost from U.S. Department of State, “Background Note: Liberia,” atwww.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/6618.htm, updated June 2009; María Cristina Caballero, “‘Ma Ellen,’ African Symbol of Hope, Returns to Harvard,” Harvard University Gazette, 16 September 2006; number of troops and timing from “UN’s Ban to Visit Liberia as Blue Helmets Prepare Pullout,” Agence France-Presse, 20 April 2008.
40. John W. Blaney, “Lessons from Liberia’s Success: Thoughts on Leadership, the Process of Peace, Security, and Justice,” Prism, vol. 1, no. 2 (March 2010), pp. 101–10.
41. See detailed table in Chapter 13. Costs of meeting basic social goals based on the following sources: universal primary education from UNESCO, op. cit. note 12, pp. 119–31, and from Wils et al., op. cit. note 13; eradication of adult illiteracy is author’s estimate based on U.N. Commission on Population and Development, op. cit. note 12; school lunch programs from WFP, op. cit. note 15; aid to women, infants, and preschool children is author’s estimate, based on McGovern, op. cit. note 16; universal reproductive health and family planning calculated by Earth Policy Institute, based on UNFPA, Flow of Financial Resources, op. cit. note 22, and on Speidel, op. cit. note 22, with cost of closing the condom gap estimated from Population Action International, op. cit. note 22, and from UNFPA, Donor Support, op. cit. note 22; universal basic health care from Sachs and Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, op. cit. note 19.
42. Jeffrey D. Sachs, The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time (New York: Penguin Group, 2005).
Copyright © 2011 Earth Policy Institute
